SpaceX 的 Starship 预定最早本周进行第 12 次试飞，这是在经历了 3 年的爆炸、重新设计与技术升级之后；而这个时点很重要，因为该公司的巨型 IPO 可能会在 6 月中旬的未来几周内到来，估值可能超过 $2 trillion。这枚火箭几乎是 SpaceX 每一项重大雄心的核心：运送更多的 Starlink 卫星、建立月球上的人类基地、支援 Elon Musk 超过 1 million 颗资料中心卫星的计划，以及最终为人类在火星定居铺路。Starship 由 SpaceX 位于南德州的 Starbase 制造，而 Musk 已将其塑造成公司未来的支柱。

SpaceX 表示，Starship 最终应该能将 100 到 150 metric tons 载入低地球轨道，但该公司去年表示，其原型机只能达到约 35 metric tons，少于 Falcon Heavy，也只比 Falcon 9 多一点；相比之下，NASA 的 Space Launch System 可将 95 metric tons 载入 LEO。Musk 称新的 Version 3 具备重新设计的 Raptor 引擎与更高的箭身，是一次彻底升级，能在完全可重复使用的同时把超过 100 tons 送入轨道。V3 计划一开始就不顺，包括 11 月在测试台上的助推器爆炸，而这项计划更早的历史还包括 2023 年 4 月首次测试在不到 4 分钟后以爆炸收场，以及在 V2 阶段发生多次失败。

核心取舍在于，完全可重复使用会降低有效载荷：Starship 必须保留燃料以便返回与著陆，永久性的隔热罩与气动外表面会增加重量，而且未来的月球与火星任务也需要在太空中加注燃料；如果有效载荷能力维持在低档，这件事会变得更困难。月球补给燃料的估算约从 10 次发射到十几次不等，而 SpaceX 与月球登陆相关的 NASA 合约金额超过 $4 billion。专家警告，如果所需的补给次数高得多，Starship 可能会比竞争对手更弱的月球架构；而在第一架 V3 飞行中达到 100-ton 目标可能很难，甚至不可能。不过，分析人士指出，SpaceX 过去在逐步提升火箭性能方面有强劲纪录，即使未必达到 Musk 想要的规模。

SpaceX’s Starship is scheduled for its 12th test flight as soon as this week, after 3 years of explosions, redesigns, and technical upgrades, and the timing matters because the company’s mega-IPO could come within weeks in mid-June at a valuation that could exceed $2 trillion. The rocket is central to almost every major SpaceX ambition: carrying far more Starlink satellites, enabling a human base on the moon, supporting Elon Musk’s plan for more than 1 million data center satellites, and ultimately opening the path to a human settlement on Mars. Starship is built at SpaceX’s Starbase in South Texas, and Musk has made it the backbone of the company’s future.

SpaceX says Starship should eventually deliver 100 to 150 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, but last year the company said its prototypes were only reaching about 35 metric tons, less than Falcon Heavy and only a bit more than Falcon 9, while NASA’s Space Launch System can carry 95 metric tons to LEO. Musk says the new Version 3, with redesigned Raptor engines and a taller body, is a radical upgrade that could reach over 100 tons to orbit while remaining fully reusable. The V3 campaign has already had a rough start, including a booster explosion on a test stand in November, and the program’s earlier history includes the first test in April 2023 ending in an explosion after less than 4 minutes and multiple failures during the V2 phase.

The core tradeoff is that full reusability reduces payload: Starship must hold back fuel to return and land, a permanent heat shield and aerodynamic surfaces add weight, and future moon and Mars missions will also require in-space refueling, which becomes harder if payload capacity stays low. Estimates for lunar refueling have ranged from roughly 10 launches to the high teens, and SpaceX has more than $4 billion in NASA contracts tied to lunar landings. Experts warn that if the required refueling count is much higher, Starship may be a weaker lunar architecture than rivals, and reaching the 100-ton goal on the first V3 flight may be difficult or impossible; still, analysts note SpaceX has a strong record of eventually improving rocket performance, even if not at the scale Musk wants.