到周一开盘时，这份报告已成为本就脆弱的 AI 情绪焦点，美国股市遭到抛售：S&P 500 从上涨转为收盘下跌超过 1%，某金融类股指数创下自 April 以来最差单日表现，一档大型软体 ETF 跌逾 4%。报告中被明确点名的股票（包括 ServiceNow、DoorDash、American Express）也下跌；不过 van Geelen 表示 Citrini 并未在这些标的持有空头部位。到周二，许多受影响股票与指数随大盘反弹，显示这是一场快速但暂时性的冲击，且被同时存在的关税、地缘政治与 Anthropic 相关疑虑放大。
此事件凸显市场部位已从 AI 成长乐观转向对颠覆风险的关注，叙事敏感度如今高到单一篇病毒式传播的研究文章即可影响盘中资金流。背景数据也解释了该报告为何受关注：van Geelen 因在 2022 年末、Silicon Valley Bank 于 March 2023 崩溃前提出做空观点而提高能见度；Citrini 于 2023 年将研究变现，现约有 10 名员工、超过 119,000 名订阅者，且被列为 RoboStrategy 50,000 股的卖方股东（占已登记转售股份的 0.25%）。van Geelen 与撰稿者 Alap Shah 将该文定位为政策与风险讨论的引子，强调他们无法为文中危机路径赋予 0% 机率。
On February 25, 2026, Bloomberg reported that James van Geelen, the 33-year-old founder of Citrini Research, unexpectedly became a catalyst for a sharp market reaction after releasing a free, 7,000+ word Substack essay on Sunday titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” The scenario described a severe AI-driven downturn in which mass white-collar layoffs trigger deflation, unemployment rises above 10%, and equities are broadly repriced lower, framing a worst-case macro path rather than a base-case forecast.
By Monday’s open, the note had become a focal point for already fragile AI sentiment, and US equities sold off: the S&P 500 moved from gains to a decline of more than 1% by the close, a financial-sector index posted its worst day since April, and a major software ETF fell more than 4%. Stocks explicitly cited in the report, including ServiceNow, DoorDash, and American Express, also dropped, although van Geelen said Citrini held no short positions in those names; by Tuesday, many affected stocks and indexes rebounded with the broader market, indicating a fast but temporary shock amplified by concurrent tariff, geopolitical, and Anthropic-related concerns.
The episode highlights how positioning has shifted from AI-growth optimism toward disruption risk, with narrative sensitivity now high enough for a single viral research piece to influence intraday flows. Background figures reinforce why the report drew attention: van Geelen gained visibility after a late-2022 short call ahead of Silicon Valley Bank’s March 2023 collapse; Citrini monetized research in 2023, now has about 10 employees and more than 119,000 subscribers, and is listed as a selling shareholder of 50,000 shares in RoboStrategy (0.25% of registered resale shares). Van Geelen and contributor Alap Shah framed the paper as a policy and risk conversation starter, emphasizing they could not justify assigning a 0% probability to the outlined crisis path.