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国际货币基金组织(IMF)维持2026年全球经济增长预期在3%左右大致不变,指出人工智慧(AI)领域的繁荣有助于抵消中东冲突所带来的负面影响,但同时警告地缘政治局势升温仍使整体风险偏向行下行。

全球通膨降温进程陷入停滞,IMF将今年全球消费物价指数的增长预测从原先的4.4%上调至4.7%,主要受到能源与食品成本上升的推动;与此同时,中东地区的经济成长预测遭到大幅调降,沙乌地阿拉伯的预估增速被砍至1.7%。

相对地,亚洲多个融入人工智慧供应链的经济体(如韩国、泰国、马来西亚和台湾)表现优于预期,其相关硬体出口与数据中心建设在面临能源及贸易中断的威胁下依然表现强劲。

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 global economic growth forecast largely unchanged at 3%, stating that the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) helped offset the negative impacts of the Middle East conflict, though it warned that risks remain tilted to the downside due to rising geopolitical tensions.

Progress in bringing down global inflation has stalled, leading the IMF to raise its consumer price growth projection for this year to 4.7% from 4.4%, driven by rising energy and food costs; meanwhile, growth forecasts for the Middle East were downgraded significantly, with Saudi Arabia's projected growth cut to 1.7%.

In contrast, several Asian economies integrated into the artificial intelligence supply chain—including South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan—outperformed expectations, driven by robust exports of AI-related hardware and data center expansion despite exposure to energy and trade disruptions.
2026-07-09 (Thursday) · 76d288775b76108770774df2f826b1c015e9a3c7