几十年来中国的理想家庭是“父母宠爱独生子女”。在湖北天门市的产科医院，官方从口号和海报到实际补贴都在改变这一理想：鼓励“多一个孩子多一份福”。天门对二胎的最高补贴为287,188元，三胎为355,988元（主要为住房补贴），而该省人均年可支配收入只有约40,000元。中央2024年推出的国家级措施包括每年3,600元的育儿补贴，连续前三年发放；市级还有6万元的结婚登记补贴，外来务工者为双倍（约12万元）、产假补贴和月度育儿补贴等，落实速度快——补贴在三天内到账，已吸引100多地政府来调研。

政策效果显示一定短期上升：2024年天门新生儿数上升17%至7,217人，明显高于全国6%的上升（全国上升被认为部分系疫情后回弹）。但多个因素令人怀疑长期有效性：部分生育增长来自外地父母迁入以获取补贴；政策仅适用于2027年5月前出生的孩子，可能引发抢生；天门本地结婚人数仍持续下降。人口学指标仍严峻：总和生育率约为每名女性1个孩子，联合国预测在现有轨迹下中国人口到2100年可能减半。

现金补贴并非万能。家庭担忧教育成本和升学竞争，研究显示按人均GDP计算，中国教育成本比美国高约50%；职业中断风险和产假保护不足也抑制生育意愿。天门在推进免费两岁托育、产科旁育婴中心和相亲服务，但也开始使用更强干预手段（比如婚后建档产检、劝导式电话及AI机器人外呼），暴露出国家在诱导婚育方面的局限：能强制禁止行为，但难以可靠地激起生育意愿。

For decades China's ideal family centered on parents doting on a single child, but Tianmen's campaign combines messaging and unprecedented cash incentives to change behavior. Tianmen offers up to 287,188 yuan for a second child and 355,988 yuan for a third (mainly housing subsidies) in a province where annual disposable income is roughly 40,000 yuan. Central policy added a 3,600-yuan annual baby bonus for the first three years, and Tianmen layered in 60,000 yuan for marriage registration (double for migrants), maternity-payments and monthly childcare allowances; implementation has been fast, with subsidies credited within three days and over 100 local governments studying the model.

There are early gains: Tianmen's newborns rose 17% in 2024 to 7,217, outpacing the national 6% rise, which analysts partly attribute to a post-COVID rebound. But reasons for skepticism remain: some births reflect families moving residency to access subsidies, the policy covers births only before May 2027 (encouraging a rush), and local marriage rates continue to fall. Demographically the challenge is deep: fertility is about one child per woman, and UN projections show China's population could halve by 2100 on the current trajectory.

Cash is not a panacea. Parents cite prohibitive lifetime education costs and brutal examination competition; demographers estimate education costs are about 50% higher in China than in the US relative to GDP per person. Career disruption risks for mothers, weak job protections, and the high long-term cost of raising children limit responsiveness. Tianmen is expanding daycare, building infant support centers and running matchmaking, while national efforts—maternal checks at marriage registration, outreach calls and even AI robocalls—highlight the limits of inducements versus coercion when trying to revive marriage and fertility.