随着北极进入冬季，中国在该地区取得了一个“丰收年”：9月破冰船“雪龙2”完成了中国迄今最大规模的北极考察，涉及约100名科学家，并实现了首次载人冰下深海潜水；10月一艘中方运营的集装箱船在不使用破冰船的情况下完成了首个按计划经北方航道从中国到欧洲的航行，用时20天，约为苏伊士航线的一半。尽管如此，中国研究人员在2月初挪威特罗姆瑟的会议上淡化了2018年提出的“极地丝绸之路”，转而强调气候科研合作与“有限目标”。
这种转向发生在北极安全议题快速上升的背景下：自俄罗斯于2022年对乌克兰发动全面入侵以来，曾主张将北极保持为和平合作区的北欧国家更趋重视高北地区安全，而外界担忧中国通过科研与航运积累在该地区运作军舰与潜艇的能力。挪威方面称在斯瓦尔巴仅有1个中国科研站，但同时把俄中列为主要情报威胁，并在发现既往研究可能具有军事用途后加强了监测。
欧洲及盟友的审视在近年显著加码：瑞典在2020年阻止中方获取一座北极空间站并于2023年退出中国-北欧北极研究中心，芬兰也缩减涉华项目；丹麦情报部门在12月警告中国可能在5到10年内在北极部署海军舰艇与潜艇。俄中正共同开发北方航道，去年约90艘使用该航道的船只中有“数十艘”属于规避制裁的“影子舰队”向中国运油，且两国在2024年进行了首次北极联合海警巡逻并首次在阿拉斯加外海联合战略轰炸机飞行，使航道与矿产供应链被“武器化”的风险评估上升。
As winter began in the Arctic, China logged a banner year there: in September the icebreaker Xuelong 2 finished its biggest-ever Arctic expedition involving about 100 scientists and China’s first crewed deep-sea dive beneath the ice; in October a Chinese-operated container ship completed the first scheduled China-to-Europe Arctic transit without icebreakers, a 20-day Northern Sea Route voyage about half the time of the Suez Canal. Even so, at early-February meetings in Tromso, China’s researchers downplayed the 2018 “polar silk road” and instead stressed climate-science partnership and “limited goals.”
This shift tracks a sharp rise in security focus in the high north: since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Nordic states that once aimed to preserve the Arctic as a peaceful co-operation zone have prioritized security, while officials worry China is gathering data and experience for operating navy ships and submarines there. Norway noted only one Chinese research station in Svalbard, yet still labeled Russia and China the main intelligence threats and intensified monitoring after past research was found to have potential military purposes.
Scrutiny across Europe and allies has tightened in recent years: Sweden blocked Chinese access to an Arctic space station in 2020 and left the China-Nordic Arctic Research Centre in 2023, and Finland has scaled back China-linked projects; Danish intelligence warned in December that China could aim to operate naval ships and submarines in the Arctic within five to ten years. China and Russia are jointly developing the Northern Sea Route, and “dozens” of the roughly 90 ships that used it last year belong to a sanctions-busting shadow fleet moving Russian oil to China, while overt security co-operation expanded in 2024 with first joint coastguard patrols there and a first joint strategic-bomber flight off Alaska, raising fears that shipping routes and mineral supply chains could be weaponised.
Source: What China is really up to in the Arctic
Subtitle: Its close co-operation with Russia is alarming many in the regio
Dateline: 2月 12, 2026 06:37 上午 | Tromso