根据IRS相关对比,在收入达到100万美元的纳税人中,税负主要由收入来源决定而非仅仅由收入规模决定。会计师Eric Scaringe的模拟显示,一名年薪100万美元的银行业者今年可能缴纳超过30万美元的联邦薪资税和所得税,这比同等收入的企业主高约6万美元,比同等收入的投资者高约10万美元。风险投资家在最新税法结构下甚至可将联邦税单降至接近零。特朗普于2017年与2025年推行/签署的税改规则偏向资本与所有权型收入,同时令许多薪资职业者相对承担更高税负。
对中等收入劳动者而言,这种差异也有政治与行为属性:W-2薪资工人相比小费工人、加班员工、企业主、投资者及部分高龄群体,获得的新税收优惠更少。SALT(州税和财产税)抵扣在2017年后已下调,新规则写着提高上限但覆盖面更窄——收入低于50万美元者可享全额4万美元上限,而年入60万美元及以上者仍被限制在1万美元。大学毕业者在近三次总统选举中平均较民主党优势约20个百分点,而无学士学位者平均更支持特朗普约10个百分点,因此税制利益重新分配与其选民基础存在对应关系。
退税数字容易误导判断:截至4月3日,IRS的代扣代缴表已约提高350美元,导致1.28亿名W-2纳税人更易拿到较高退税;企业主反而更可能在4月15日报税时有欠税,因为他们可利用更多可抵扣支出(如差旅、家庭办公室)与季度计税安排。企业税收优惠、设备一次性前置扣除、以及2017年最贵项目之一的合格营业利润扣减(QBI)20%永久化,共同降低了应税所得。David Glavin称,此举明显降低了其应税额。高收入投资者若以资本利得、合格股息或carried interest计税,其综合税率常低于24%,而普通工资收入者在普通所得上可达37%加上工资税。以8万美元为例,年薪员工与同额小费收入的餐厅服务员相比可多付约5,000美元;时薪并充分利用加班扣除者可少缴近3,000美元。符合条件的70岁老人领取养老金和社保共8万美元时,新增6,000美元的优惠可使其税负低于同样8万美元、仍在养老准备期的64岁纳税者的三分之一以下。
The IRS-based comparison shows that among Americans earning $1,000,000, tax burden depends primarily on income type rather than income size alone. In accounting estimates by Eric Scaringe, a banker with a $1,000,000 salary can owe over $300,000 in federal payroll and income taxes, around $60,000 more than a business owner and $100,000 more than an investor with the same income. A venture capitalist, using the latest law structure, may even reduce the federal bill to near zero. Trump-era rules in 2017 and 2025 shifted the system toward capital and ownership income, while salaried professionals face a comparatively heavier load.
For middle-income workers, the inequality is also behavioral and political: W-2 employees get fewer of the newer perks than tipped workers, overtime staff, business owners, investors, or some older taxpayers. SALT deductions were reduced after 2017, and the new structure, though rhetorically broadened, is targeted: full access to the $40,000 cap is generally for taxpayers under $500,000, while those with $600,000 or more remain at $10,000. College graduates, who supported Democrats by about 20 points on average in the last three presidential elections, are less likely to gain; voters without bachelor’s degrees favor Trump by roughly 10 points, matching the new alignment of policy benefits.
Refund optics can be misleading. As of April 3, withholding tables were raised by about $350, which means more than 128,000,000 W-2 taxpayers are more likely to receive larger refunds, while business owners are more likely to owe at tax time because expenses and pass-through treatment still reduce taxable income heavily. Equipment and startup deductions, plus permanent QBI relief (20%) for many pass-through businesses, materially lower liabilities; David Glavin and others report major improvements. High-income investors paying through long-term gains, qualified dividends, or carried interest often face total rates below 24%, versus up to 37% plus payroll taxes on ordinary wage income. At $80,000, a server with both wage and tip maximization can save about $5,000 versus a school or office employee with the same money, and an overtime worker can save almost $3,000. With the enhanced $6,000 senior break, a 70-year-old receiving $80,000 from pensions and Social Security can owe less than one third of a 64-year-old with the same income who is still saving for retirement.