在4月21日，美国和伊朗停火即将到期、冲突可能再起的前夕，巴基斯坦应特朗普之请促成了无限期延长期，令其从“长期IMF援助与叛乱高发”的单一叙事中跃升为全球权力博弈中的关键调停者。军方首脑阿西姆·穆尼尔在危机中与特朗普和副总统维斯特频繁通话，单独赴德黑兰进行了为期三天的高层会晤，并在首轮谈判中常被观察到是少数认真做记录的人。
自2022年出任军 chief 以来，穆尼尔迅速稳固军队、削弱反对力量并扩大对政府影响力，依靠宪法操作被认为可保住约十年至十年多的任期，现实中许多人认为真正拍板者是他而非总理谢巴兹·谢里夫。巴基斯坦历史上有高难度斡旋经验（1972年前后曾进行三年美中秘密接触），如今借助其作为世界第五人口大国、唯一穆斯林核国家的地位，试图在重建中分一席位、推动取消伊巴天然气管道制裁，并在沙特维持约1.3万名士兵和18架战机，防务开支今年又上涨约五分之一，甚至出现“伊斯兰北约”讨论。
不过国内结构性压力并未因外交舞台胜利消解：民生十年几乎未见实质抬升，油价上升与食物价格预期上涨、主要城市天然气短缺与轮流停电依旧明显，但当局以高压抑制抗议维持短期稳定。经济压力若持续，镇压倾向恐将加深，伊姆兰·汗自2022年被免权后仍单独监禁，数百名对手遭拘押，伊玛兰阵营称其处境是“自由或死亡”，其党在2024年选举后称遭篡改，尽管名义上仍有民主宪法和一省政府在位，军权主导的体制正更公开化。
On April 21, just hours before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was due to expire and fresh strikes loomed, Pakistan, at President Trump’s request, secured an indefinite extension, helping recast a country long known for IMF dependence and insurgencies as an agile actor in global power politics. During the crisis, Army Chief Asim Munir stayed in regular contact with Trump and Vice President Vance, made a three-day visit to Tehran to meet top leaders, and stood out in the first round of talks as one of the few principals diligently taking notes.
Since being appointed army chief in 2022, Munir quickly consolidated control of the armed forces, sidelined opposition, and expanded influence over government, with constitutional engineering said to lock in roughly a decade or more for him, and most observers now see him as the real decision-maker rather than Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan has a history of high-risk diplomacy—including a three-year backchannel before Nixon’s China visit—and now seeks to use its position as the world’s fifth-most populous country and only Muslim nuclear power to shape post-war reconstruction, push for lifting Iran-Pakistan pipeline sanctions, station about 13,000 troops and 18 jets in Saudi Arabia, increase defense spending by about one-fifth, and discuss an “Islamic NATO.”
Yet domestic stress remains severe: living standards have barely improved over ten years, with fuel inflation and likely food-price increases, plus gas shortages and rolling blackouts in major cities, unresolved despite tight controls on protests. If economic pain deepens, repression is likely to intensify, as Imran Khan remains in solitary confinement after his 2022 removal, hundreds of rivals are reportedly detained, PTI supporters speak of “freedom or death,” the 2024 election is contested as rigged, and despite a nominally democratic constitution and an opposition-led provincial government, military dominance has become increasingly overt.
Source: What do the geopolitical successes of Asim Munir mean for Pakistan?
Subtitle: Despite some breathless optimism, the military strongman is unlikely to deliver deeper change
Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 05:01 上午 | ISLAMABAD AND LAHORE