麻省理工学院教授、诺贝尔经济学奖得主西蒙·强森(Simon Johnson)受邀担任英国新成立的「人工智慧经济学研究所」主席。他指出,目前许多企业将 AI 视为取代劳工的工具,这可能对技能面临淘汰的中低收入阶层带来巨大冲击,尤其是缺乏经验的年轻族群首当其冲。该研究所旨在协助政策制定者引导 AI 的采用,使其能够提升薪资而非加剧不平等。
强森认为 AI 虽然会取代如后勤行政及呼叫中心等白领工作,引发类似「中国冲击」的劳动市场两极化与地理社会分化,但不太可能导致大规模失业。对于拥有高技能的专业人士而言,AI 是生产力倍增的利器;但对于未达专业门槛的人,则面临被取代的风险。因此,引导技术转型以创造需要人类专业知识的新任务,是提升整体薪资的关键。
面对教育与职涯规划的挑战,强森对年轻人的韧性表示乐观,并建议他们可以培养成为能跨领域解决问题的「通用型奇才」(GPN),或专注于 AI 无法轻易取代的高价值专业判断。同时,他也指出大学教育需要重新思考教学模式,而宏观经济环境的稳定与充足的能源供应,亦是推动 AI 良性发展不可或缺的外部条件。
MIT professor and Nobel laureate Simon Johnson has accepted an invitation to chair the UK's new AI Economics Institute. He warns that many companies currently view AI as a tool to replace workers, which poses a significant threat to lower-middle-income workers whose skills might become obsolete, with young people being the most exposed. The institute aims to help policymakers shape AI adoption to boost wages rather than worsen inequalities.
Johnson believes that while AI will displace back-office white-collar jobs and cause labor market polarization similar to the "China shock," it is unlikely to result in mass unemployment. While AI acts as a force multiplier for highly skilled professionals, those below the expertise threshold risk being replaced. Thus, steering the technological transition to create new tasks that demand human expertise is crucial for raising wages.
Addressing challenges in education and career paths, Johnson remains optimistic about young people's resilience and suggests they either specialize in high-value roles requiring human judgment or become "general purpose nerds" (GPNs) capable of solving diverse problems. He also notes that universities must rethink their teaching methods, and highlights that a stable macroeconomic environment and adequate energy supply are vital external factors for positive AI development.