市场的怀疑态度随著债券期限延长而加剧。SpaceX五年期债券的信用利差为1.18个百分点，而三十年期债券的利差则扩大至1.99个百分点，但评级机构给出的评级始终维持在BBB不变。作者指出，市场反映的是投资者集体智慧，且投资者以真金白银支持其判断，而评级分析师则由债券发行人付费，存在潜在利益冲突。2008年金融危机前夕，评级机构曾对高风险抵押贷款相关债券给予过高评级，而信用利差的扩大则提前发出了预警信号。
从股票角度来看，SpaceX目前尚无盈利、不派发股息、由单一个人控制，且市销率超过100倍，约为标普500指数估值的30倍，堪称典型的「垃圾股」特征。尽管IPO期间投资者为750亿美元的股票下了超过3000亿美元的订单，但全球最大、最老练的债券投资者仍对公司的前景持谨慎态度。作者表示他支持SpaceX的愿景，但作为投资者，他认为市场本身才是衡量公司成功前景最可靠的指标。
Bond rating agencies and the debt market hold starkly different views on SpaceX's creditworthiness. While Moody's, S&P, and Fitch assign an average BBB rating—the lowest investment-grade level—the bond market tells a different story. SpaceX's bonds trade at an average credit spread of 1.62 percentage points over Treasuries, significantly above the 0.92 percentage point average for BBB-rated corporate bonds and even exceeding the 1.55 percentage point average for BB-rated junk bonds. In effect, the market prices SpaceX's debt closer to junk than to investment grade.
Market skepticism intensifies with longer maturities: SpaceX's five-year bonds carry a 1.18 percentage point spread that widens to 1.99 percentage points for its 30-year bonds, while the credit rating remains a uniform BBB throughout. The author argues that markets are generally more reliable arbiters of credit quality because they aggregate collective investor wisdom backed by real capital, whereas rating analysts are paid by bond issuers, creating potential conflicts of interest. The 2008 financial crisis serves as a cautionary precedent, when rating agencies assigned top-tier grades to mortgage bonds even as widening credit spreads signaled mounting default risk.
SpaceX's stock characteristics reinforce the bond market's cautious assessment. The company is unprofitable, pays no dividends, is controlled by a single individual, and trades at over 100 times sales—roughly 30 times the S&P 500's valuation—fitting the profile of a speculative junk stock. Despite the IPO frenzy that drew over $300 billion in orders for $75 billion in shares, the world's most sophisticated fixed-income investors demand significant compensation for the risk. The author concludes that while he hopes SpaceX succeeds in its ambitious goals, the market remains the most trustworthy gauge of the company's prospects.