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Lumentum Holdings Inc. 表示,美国最大科技公司对其光学元件的需求正在加速,并预期其订单簿将持续满载到 2028 年。Michael Hurlston 在一次受访中指出,美国超级大规模运算服务商(hyperscaler)的资本支出(capex)规模巨大,且似乎没有终点,Lumentum 也越来越无法追上需求。他说公司在未来两个季度内将全年的产能都被售罄,这一预期已将先前「至少到 2027 年底售罄」的说法延长到 2028 年。尽管伊朗战事动摇油市并加剧全球经济不确定性,他仍认为 AI 资料中心设备需求仍具韧性。此消息公布后,Lumentum 在纽约盘前涨幅高达 7.6%,而竞争对手 Coherent Corp. 的股价也同步受益。

根据美国证券交易委员会披露,Nvidia 已各投资 2,000 百万美元(each)于 Lumentum 与 Coherent,并获得先进雷射元件的采购协议与存取权。曾被视为稳态的业务如今成为市场焦点,Lumentum 过去一年股价已上涨超过 1,500%,因为光电技术被视为先进云端 AI 丛集的关键。为满足需求,该公司在过去两年把东京都会区核心工厂产能提高了 12 倍,目前计划在该厂与邻近 Takao 场址再投入至少 100 百万美元,且可能提高到 250 百万美元(0.25 billion)。由于可新增产能的场址有限,Lumentum 目前正寻找日本境内可快速改造的既有电子制造设施,甚至考虑了去年看中的收购标的。

矽光子学被认为将取代资料中心中的铜导线互连,因 AI 系统需求更高传输速度,且光学网路有助降低散热与耗电。文章指出,日本在磷化铟(indium phosphide)、光纤材料与矽光子学上具备深厚生态,Lumentum 透过 2018 年收购 Oclaro,承接了 Hitachi 的光学研发资源,并使其 Sagamihara 设备基地成为全球最先进的磷化铟元件生产地之一,能稳定提供高品质产能。Hurlston 说,将生产搬出日本不可行,因磷化铟制程需严控温度、湿度、混料速度与水质,且供应链聚落是核心竞争力;他也提到有一项与日本供应商签订的七年期合作合约极为关键。即便新增厂房、长期合约与工程师招聘都在进行中,Lumentum 仍认为订单积压将持续推升,且这一周期至少可维持 5 年。

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Lumentum Holdings Inc. said demand from the largest U.S. tech companies for its optical components is accelerating and is expected to keep its order books fully filled through 2028. In an interview, CEO Michael Hurlston said U.S. hyperscaler capex is huge and appears to have no end in sight, and that Lumentum is falling further behind demand. He said it would be sold out for all of 2028 within two quarters, extending earlier guidance of being sold out at least through the end of 2027. He added that demand for AI data-center equipment remains resilient despite Iran shaking oil markets and adding global economic uncertainty. Following the remarks, Lumentum shares rose up to 7.6% in New York premarket, while rival Coherent Corp. also rose.

According to SEC disclosures, Nvidia invested 2,000 million USD in each of Lumentum and Coherent, and secured purchase agreements and access rights for advanced laser components. What was once a stodgy business has become highly sought after: Lumentum shares are up more than 1,500% over the past year as optics become critical for advanced cloud AI clusters. To meet runaway demand, Lumentum has increased capacity 12-fold in two years at its core factory in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The company now plans to invest at least 100 million USD and possibly up to 250 million USD (a quarter billion) at that site and a neighboring Takao facility. Because expansion room is constrained, it is scouting additional Japanese sites, including older electronics fabs it can repurpose quickly; it also considered a related acquisition last year.

Silicon photonics is expected to displace copper interconnects in data centers because AI workloads need higher-speed transmission and lower heat and power consumption. Japan is seen as the center of an ecosystem in indium phosphide, optical fiber materials, and silicon photonics, reinforced by long local supply chains. Lumentum entered this ecosystem through its 2018 Oclaro acquisition, which incorporated Hitachi optical research, and its Sagamihara site is now one of the world’s most advanced indium phosphide production facilities. Hurlston said moving production outside Japan is not feasible because indium phosphide manufacturing needs strict control of temperature, humidity, mixing speed, and water quality, and because supplier clustering is a strategic strength. He called a seven-year arrangement with one Japanese supplier critical. Even with new plants, longer contracts, and hiring, Lumentum expects the backlog to keep piling up and says the cycle seems sustainable for at least five years.
2026-04-14 (Tuesday) · 14bb9c9d333bc3c179a7e1adeb2dbb1385241506