此次波动是由非农就业数据引发的，该数据显示美国在5月份新增了172,000个工作岗位，是市场普遍预期约85,000个的两倍以上。休闲和餐旅业增加了70,000名员工，远远超过其12个月平均每月14,000人的水平，这很可能是因为即将到来的世界杯。地方政府的招聘也贡献了55,000个工作岗位。然而，劳动力市场依然不均衡；作为受AI影响极深的行业，金融服务业自2025年5月以来已减少了107,000个工作岗位，显示出技术已经在改变就业格局。
尽管就业人数数据强劲，但其他指标表明联邦准备理事会可能不需要立即升息。自2月份以来，失业率一直停留在4.3%，且年薪资增长放缓至3.4%，这代表了实质上的微幅减薪。尽管如此，债券市场自3月以来就一直释放出利率将上升的信号，交易员目前预计今年将会有一到两次的升息。其他宏观风险，例如若荷姆兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）持续关闭可能带来的潜在滞胀冲击，以及在 Jamie Dimon 的支持下将 SpaceX 推向万亿美元估值的 Elon Musk 等大规模上市案，进一步加剧了人们对AI狂热可能已是最后狂欢的担忧。
The financial markets reacted sharply to Friday's jobs report, with the Nasdaq closing down 4.2%, its largest decline since April 2025. This sell-off was accompanied by benchmark two-year Treasury yields jumping 11 basis points to 4.15% and Bitcoin tumbling below $60,000. In theory, higher interest rates raise corporate borrowing costs, discounting future artificial intelligence (AI) profits and slowing infrastructure build-out. Amidst this pressure, news leaked that Meta is considering an equity raise, possibly because Mark Zuckerberg noticed Alphabet’s massive $85 billion ($85bn) share deal, raising questions about whether the AI-driven bull market has reached its peak.
The volatility was triggered by non-farm payrolls showing that the United States added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the consensus expectation of 85,000. The leisure and hospitality sector added 70,000 workers, far exceeding its 12-month average of 14,000, likely due to the upcoming World Cup. Local government hiring also contributed 55,000 jobs. However, the labor market remains uneven; financial services, a sector highly exposed to AI, has shed 107,000 jobs since May 2025, showing that technology is already shifting employment patterns.
Despite the strong payroll figure, other metrics indicate the Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates immediately. The unemployment rate remained stuck at 4.3% since February, and annual wage growth slowed to 3.4%, representing a minor real-terms pay cut. Nonetheless, bond markets have signaled rising rates since March, and traders now price in one or two rate increases this year. Additional macro risks, like a potential stagflationary shock if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and massive listings like Elon Musk pushing SpaceX toward a trillion-dollar valuation with Jamie Dimon's support, further feed concerns of a final hurrah for the AI mania.