十月开始安达曼海的“航行季”，当海面平静使人口走私者能够以约15,000马来西亚令吉（≈3,600美元）每人将从孟加拉/缅甸移动到马来西亚。为期一周的海上航程危险：走私者在靠近海岸时把乘客从母船转移到小船；一艘载约70–100人的小船翻覆。11月8日一艘货船救起了三名幸存者；在随后的几天里又打捞出11名幸存者和27具尸体，其中包括四名儿童。

罗兴亚人因恶劣情况而逃离：在若开邦至少有100,000人被限制在流离失所者营地，夹在军政府和若开军的战斗中；在孟加拉国科克斯巴扎尔营地有超过1,000,000人，营内住房仅允许竹子和油布，而且教育和工作受限。观察者报告航季提前并在加速：自九月以来至少有16艘船出发，总计估计运载2,000–3,000人。

这意味着每艘船平均约125–188人（2,000–3,000 ÷ 16），加剧了拥挤和风险。分析人士将人数激增主要归因于担心美国资助的食品援助——今年早些时候被削减并仅以短期配给提供——将耗尽；美国官员在九月将进一步援助与孟加拉允许罗兴亚人工作联系起来。政治阻力和孟加拉二月的选举使快速改变不太可能，因此航季持续到五月，预计将保持繁忙。

October begins the Andaman Sea "sailing season," when calmer waters enable people smugglers to move migrants from Bangladesh/Myanmar toward Malaysia for about 15,000 Malaysian ringgit (≈$3,600) per person. The week-long sea voyage is hazardous: smugglers transfer passengers from mother ships to smaller boats near shore; one small vessel carrying roughly 70–100 people capsized. On Nov 8 a cargo ship rescued three survivors; in following days 11 more survivors and 27 bodies, including four children, were recovered.

Rohingya flee dire conditions: in Rakhine State at least 100,000 are confined to displaced-person camps amid fighting between the junta and the Arakan Army; over 1,000,000 live in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar camps with restrictions on sturdier shelters and limits on education and work. Observers report an early and accelerating season: since September at least 16 boats have departed, carrying an estimated 2,000–3,000 people in total.

That implies an average of about 125–188 people per boat (2,000–3,000 ÷ 16), intensifying crowding and risk. Analysts attribute the boom primarily to fears that US-funded food aid — cut earlier this year and supplied only in short-term packages — will run out; US officials in September linked further aid to Bangladesh allowing Rohingya to work. Political resistance and Bangladesh's February elections make quick changes unlikely, so the sailing season, which runs to May, is expected to remain busy.