这篇文章指出，预测市场把「交易」包装成几乎等同于下注的产品，却缺乏州级博彩监管的护栏，可能加剧操纵风险。作者以交易者在2020年开始、并于2021年前后靠「打探消息」获利的例子说明：在这类市场里，内幕资讯会被视为价格讯号，而不是犯规。
过去一年，Kalshi、Crypto.com 等在今年2月超级杯前后开始向美国客户提供以NFL与大学橄榄球为标的的事件合约；CFTC 放行后，市场迅速膨胀。11月 Kalshi 交易量接近60亿美元，连续第3个月创新高；交易以1美元结算、平台靠价差与手续费获利，例如「是」73美分对「否」29美分，平台保留2美分。
文章强调，联盟面临的风险在于：合法体育博彩已扩张到30多州，去年美国人合法下注约1500亿美元，约为2019年的10倍，但NBA与MLB近一年仍爆出操纵与内线案件。10月逮捕30多人、指控7起操纵/内线；2023年一名10年资历NBA球员涉「提前退赛」让同伙下注数十万；MLB又有投手被控每球收贿5000与7000美元；另有人在先发名单公布前押11000美元并赚到对手赢24分。联盟警告在缺乏资讯共享与监控框架下，这类「全国可交易」的合约会把既有风险放大。
Prediction markets are portrayed as betting apps disguised as “trading,” but without the state-level guardrails that govern sportsbooks, leaving users exposed to manipulation. A trader’s story frames the culture: starting in 2020 and trading full-time by early 2021, he profited by collecting inside timing intel (Granholm confirmed Feb. 25 after being told “before March 1”), and peers treated that informational edge as the system working.
Over the past year, federally regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Crypto.com pushed into sports event contracts around the February Super Bowl, and the CFTC let NFL and college football contracts proceed. Volume then surged: in November, Kalshi traders swapped almost $6 billion in contracts, a third straight record month. The mechanics mirror wagering—$1 yes/no contracts, e.g., 73¢ for “yes” vs 29¢ for “no,” with Kalshi paying $1 to the winner and keeping the extra 2¢.
Leagues fear the integrity risk compounding a much larger betting market: more than 30 states now allow online sportsbooks, and Americans legally wagered about $150 billion last year, roughly 10× 2019. Yet scandals still hit—October arrests of 30+ people and 7 alleged manipulation/insider-trading instances; a 2023 NBA case involving a 10-year veteran and “hundreds of thousands” in props; MLB pitchers accused of $5,000 and $7,000 bribes per pitch; and an $11,000 pre-lineup bet tied to a 24-point loss, carrying up to 20 years’ exposure. Without mandated data-sharing and oversight, nationwide prediction markets could widen the attack surface.