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现代天文学越来越依赖将新旧技术结合,以揭示宇宙的长期动态。以复发新星为例,这类双星系统每个世纪至少爆发两次,亮度因白矮星表面发生核聚变而骤增。研究人员已追踪十多个系统的轨道周期,并排除了其中一部分作为 Ia 型超新星前身的可能性。由于相关物理过程可能跨越数十年至上百年,单一观测点远远不够,长期档案数据成为不可替代的资源。

历史观测在研究其他天体中同样关键。活动星系核的亮度变化高度随机,尽管科学家已积累约 60 年的定向观测数据和约 500 万条时间序列影像,仍难以完全解释其变异机制。为延长时间基线,研究人员开始整合数字巡天与玻璃底片数据,例如将 1940 至 1950 年代的首次帕洛玛天文台巡天,以及 1980 至 1990 年代的后续巡天,共计约 20 TB 的数字化底片,与现代探测器数据进行校准融合。

这些玻璃底片记录了 1980 年以前近一个世纪的天空,但保存状况正在迅速恶化。若环境稳定,它们可保存数百年;然而,湿度变化、霉菌和不当搬运已导致部分底片破碎或乳剂层脱落,甚至整箱数据报废。尽管如此,幸存档案仍可揭示百年尺度的爆发现象。随着新一代望远镜不断产生高精度数据,理解这些观测结果在统计上仍依赖对历史样本的保护与数字化。

Modern astronomy increasingly relies on combining old and new technologies to reveal long-term cosmic dynamics. Recurrent novae, for example, are binary systems that erupt at least twice per century as nuclear fusion ignites on a white dwarf’s surface. Researchers have tracked orbital periods in more than a dozen such systems and ruled out some as potential Type Ia supernova progenitors. Because these processes unfold over decades to centuries, single-epoch observations are insufficient, making archival records indispensable.

Historical data are equally critical for other objects. Active galactic nuclei vary unpredictably in brightness, and despite roughly 60 years of targeted monitoring and about 5 million time-series images, their variability mechanisms remain unclear. To extend time baselines, astronomers are merging digital surveys with photographic plate data, including approximately 20 terabytes of digitized images from the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey conducted in the 1940s–1950s and its successor in the 1980s–1990s, carefully calibrating across instruments and eras.

These glass plates document nearly a century of the sky before 1980, but their survival is at risk. Under stable conditions they can last hundreds of years, yet humidity shifts, mold, and mishandling have cracked plates or stripped away emulsions, destroying entire collections. Still, surviving archives contain irreplaceable records of flares and outbursts across a century. As new observatories generate ever more precise data, statistical understanding of today’s universe continues to depend on preserving and digitizing yesterday’s observations.

2026-02-08 (Sunday) · df52668fcfba179ad524d867857c92ad955960e0

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