对北京而言，封锁或夺取台湾将更可能触发类似俄乌战争后的“广泛西方制裁”，冲击已因“多年地产危机”而摇摆的中国经济；同时，台湾的关键产出是全球最先进芯片，若被“掐断”，对全球供应链的外溢破坏远大于委内瑞拉石油封锁（且委油最大买家之一是中国）。文中还点出中国军力虽在去年北京大阅兵中展示，但仍缺乏实战检验，并需评估与美国及日本、澳大利亚、韩国等盟友冲突的可能。
在马杜罗被捕后48小时内，特朗普政府又威胁要推翻哥伦比亚与古巴领导人；与之对照，习近平在周一公开发言中强调“多边主义”和联合国宪章，试图塑造稳定形象。文中回顾：自2022年佩洛西访台后，解放军已进行6次环台大规模演训；另引述“特朗普回任后已攻击7国”。台湾部分官员将委内瑞拉事件视为威慑，但也有分析称国际社会对美方行动的接受度可能降低对中国胁迫的道德约束，令台海“现状”在每次挑衅与回应中被不可逆改变。
Dated Jan 6, 2026 (07:43 GMT+8), the piece argues Trump’s Venezuela operation doesn’t translate cleanly to Taiwan because Beijing would face far higher costs. It cites a US naval blockade and rapid capture of Nicolás Maduro, occurring days after PLA drills that “last week” simulated a siege of Taiwan’s ports, bases, and energy supplies, including touted “decapitation strike” rehearsals.
Any move on Taiwan, it says, would likely trigger sweeping Western sanctions akin to those imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, jolting a Chinese economy already shaken by a yearslong property slump. It also stresses scale: choking Taiwan’s top output— the world’s most advanced chips—would disrupt global supply chains far more than restricting Venezuelan oil, which largely hurts its biggest buyer, China.
The article notes Beijing’s forces remain untested in combat and must factor potential fighting with the US plus allies like Japan, Australia, and South Korea. It contrasts Trump administration threats within the past 48 hours to topple leaders in Colombia and Cuba with Xi’s Monday appeal to multilateralism and the UN Charter. It recalls six PLA encirclement drills since missiles were fired over Taiwan in 2022, and a Bloomberg tally that Trump has attacked seven countries since returning to office; analysts warn norms are shifting and the Taiwan Strait “status quo” is being irreversibly altered.
