需求并非消失，而是转移。较富裕旅客可能改订较安全地区，如 Caribbean、Thailand、Cape Verde、Spain 或 Canary Islands；Ryanair 的 Michael O’Leary 表示，复活节前往欧洲目的地的预订激增。Mexico 原可能承接部分避开 UAE 的需求，但 Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes「El Mencho」死后的暴力事件，已使部分美国旅客对 Los Cabos 等地转趋谨慎；相对地，Dominican Republic 今年 1 月停留至少 24 小时的旅客数，较去年同期增加 8.7%。
低价与中产旅游更容易受冲击，因能源与票价压力可能加剧生活成本危机。欧洲航空公司通常对短期煤油成本进行避险，美国同业则往往没有；Carnival Corp. 今年燃料成本也未避险。高端市场较具韧性，例如 Accor 与 LVMH 合作的 Orient Express 帆船将于 6 月启航，54 间套房需求强劲。若伊朗战事或 Mexico 动荡迅速缓和，折扣或可带回旅客；但若干扰持续，旅游业在最赚钱月份前恐转为更广泛下行。
The travel industry faces a weak start to 2026 as Middle East conflict and higher oil prices hit confidence after the post-Covid boom. Andrea Felsted argues that Dubai is especially exposed: it was the world’s fifth-most visited destination last year, with 1.8% of international arrivals, up 8% versus 2024. Yet missile images and stories of stranded tourists threaten demand from its core Western European market just as the peak season ends and the Easter break begins in early April.
Demand is being redirected rather than erased. Wealthier travelers may switch to safer destinations such as the Caribbean, Thailand, Cape Verde, Spain, or the Canary Islands; Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said Easter bookings to European destinations have surged as travelers avoid the Middle East. Mexico might have captured some diverted UAE traffic, but violence after the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” has made some Americans wary of places including Los Cabos. By contrast, the Dominican Republic reported January visitors staying at least 24 hours up 8.7% year over year.
The bigger risk is a broader downturn led by price-sensitive travelers. Energy costs matter because higher fuel can lift fares: European airlines often hedge near-term kerosene exposure, while many US carriers do not, and Carnival has not hedged 2026 fuel costs. High-end travel looks more resilient; Accor’s new Orient Express sailing ship, developed with LVMH, will start voyages in June with 54 suites and strong demand. If the Iran war or Mexico unrest eases quickly, discounts could revive bookings, but prolonged disruption would darken the industry’s most profitable months.