伊朗自1979年革命以来最致命的反政府动荡中，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）已成为决定性力量。1月9日，在互联网封锁开始数小时后，革命卫队发出最后通牒并展开镇压。人权组织估计，至少3,400人死亡，实际数字可能更高。数十年的制裁，尤其是围绕核计划的制裁，使IRGC从军事分支膨胀为横跨国防、能源、基础设施和交通的政治经济集团，成为体制中损失最大、也最有能力主导未来走向的力量。

当前局势可能出现三种路径。其一是“强人模式”：内部人物取代最高领袖，但需应对超过40%的通胀率以及过去一年货币贬值逾50%的经济危机，这意味着可能与美国总统特朗普接触以换取制裁缓解。其二是军事接管：IRGC拥有约20万现役部队及60万名包括巴斯基在内的志愿力量，但直接执政将迫使其承担一个规模约4,750亿美元经济体的多重危机风险，因此并非首选。其三是长期衰败：镇压可能暂时奏效，但无法解决结构性经济不满，体制或在“生命维持”状态下延续。

外部变量加剧不确定性。特朗普在是否军事干预上反复摇摆，美国打击可能削弱但难以推翻政权，反而可能强化一个更加军事化的IRGC。缺乏大规模倒戈的情况下，政权短期内不太可能垮台。若出现权力真空，结果更可能是体制内部更强硬力量接管，而非外部反对派上台。

During the deadliest unrest since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the decisive power broker. On Jan. 9, hours into an internet blackout, it issued a final warning and launched a crackdown. Human rights groups estimate at least 3,400 deaths, with the real toll likely higher. Decades of sanctions, especially over the nuclear program, transformed the IRGC from a military arm into a vast political and economic force spanning defense, energy, infrastructure, and transport, giving it the most to lose and the greatest capacity to shape outcomes.

Three broad scenarios follow. A “strongman” outcome could see insiders replace the supreme leader, but survival would require addressing inflation above 40% and a currency that has lost more than 50% of its value in a year, likely forcing engagement with President Donald Trump for sanctions relief. A coup is possible: the IRGC has roughly 200,000 active troops and about 600,000 volunteers including the Basij, yet direct rule would saddle it with managing a $475 billion economy’s overlapping crises, making this a reluctant choice. A slow decline is also plausible, with repression buying time but failing to resolve economic discontent, leaving the system on life support.

External dynamics heighten uncertainty. Trump’s shifting red lines mean US strikes could weaken but not topple the regime, potentially producing a more militarized IRGC. Without large-scale defections from security forces, collapse is unlikely in the near term. If power does shift, analysts judge it most likely to move to harder-line elements from within the system rather than to external opposition figures.