韩国由半导体引发的股市热潮正在经历剧烈的崩塌。虽然微软、亚马逊和谷歌等美国科技巨头因人工智能基础设施的沉重资本支出而面临自由现金流受压的局面，但作为存储芯片双雄的韩国三星电子与SK海力士以及美国英伟达预计明年的自由现金流将分别突破创纪录的2000亿美元。然而，市场对存储芯片周期见顶的担忧引发了猛烈的抛售，自2026年6月的历史高点以来，三星和SK海力士的股价分别暴跌了41%和52%，使韩国股市的总市值蒸发了惊人的1.2万亿美元。
散户的高杠杆投机与政策失误放大了市场的剧烈波动。此前韩国监管机构在4月批准了绑定个股的杠杆交易所交易基金（ETF），并允许员工分享高达10%的营业利润作为奖金（SK海力士员工今年人均奖金可达50万美元，明年预计达80万美元，远超高盛员工去年40万美元的平均薪酬）。然而，当6月抛售潮来临时，数以万计的散户账户因追缴保证金而被强平，迫使监管机构在7月29日的紧急会议上紧急暂停新杠杆ETF的发行并限制其使用，引发了零售消费与芯片股的同步重挫。
韩国存储芯片巨头还面临着深刻的行业隐患。一方面，中国竞争对手正加速切入中低端存储芯片市场，削弱了韩国企业的市场份额；另一方面，尽管韩国企业强调签署了长期的预付款采购协议，但投资者日益担忧客户在行业低迷时会违约或重新谈判条款。此外，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋虽然试图通过承诺担保OpenAI价值2500亿美元的数据中心租赁及公布与SK海力士5000亿美元的合作来稳定市场，但过度干预反而加剧了投资者对AI产业链泡沫破裂的恐慌。
South Korea’s semiconductor-driven stock market boom is undergoing a sharp contraction. While American tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft report compressed free cash flows due to aggressive AI capital expenditures, Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix are each projected to surpass $200bn in free cash flow next year. However, severe cyclical concerns triggered a massive market sell-off; since peaking in June, Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices have plummeted by 41% and 52% respectively, wiping $1.2trn in market capitalization from South Korea's concentrated stock market.
Retail speculation and leveraged trading exacerbated market instability. Regulators approved leveraged single-stock ETFs in April, while lucrative profit-sharing schemes granted SK Hynix employees bonuses of up to $500,000 this year (compared to Goldman Sachs' $400,000 average compensation). As market sentiment turned in June, widespread margin calls led to thousands of liquidated accounts. At an emergency meeting on July 29th, regulators were forced to restrict leveraged funds, leaving department store sales and tech equities slumping amid forced liquidations.
Structural threats endanger South Korea’s memory dominance. Korean suppliers face market share erosion from Chinese chipmakers in low-end memory segments, while investors worry buyers will renegotiate long-term purchase agreements. Concurrently, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's efforts to stabilize the market—including guarantees for OpenAI’s $250bn data centre lease and a touted $500bn partnership with SK Hynix—have intensified investor anxiety regarding concentrated counterparty risks across the AI supply chain.
Source: South Korea’s stock-market boom is collapsing spectacularly
Subtitle: It may be a harbinger
Dateline: 7月 30, 2026 05:37 上午