华盛顿对伊朗战后安排缺乏明确蓝图的忧虑正在升高。尽管美国参议院否决了要求 Donald Trump 在未获国会授权下停止对伊朗军事行动的决议,两党议员都质疑政府连「第二阶段」都没有说清楚。Chuck Schumer、Mark Warner 与一名共和党参议员都警告,白宫既未界定战争目标,也未交代战后治理、领导人安排或美国角色;就连时程也极不确定,Pete Hegseth 只说可能是 3、4、6 或 8 周。
关税诉讼则呈现更明显的数量扩张。自最高法院同意审理 IEEPA 案后,已有超过 2,000 家进口商在美国国际贸易法院提告,寻求返还来自 300,000 家美国进口商、总额 1,750 亿美元(约 1,590 亿欧元)的关税。更大的先前浪潮来自 Trump 第一任期的中国关税:2018 年 Section 301 关税先对约 500 亿美元(约 450 亿欧元)中国进口商品课征 25% 税率,之后争议中的「修改」机制又将覆盖规模扩大 10 倍,最高达 5,500 亿美元(约 4,990 亿欧元),接近整体美中贸易组合。
这一旧案如今更关键,因为 Trump 政府在临时关税到期后,正转向依赖 Section 301。超过 4,200 家进口商已提出跟进诉讼,而联邦法院先前支持政府可修改关税,使争点集中于这种权力是否近乎无上限。HMTX 向最高法院主张,所谓 modification 不能变成绕过国会保障、任意升高关税的授权;若现行判决维持,行政部门将可在初始课税后大幅扩张税负。与此同时,Jamieson Greer 表示 Section 301 调查将在未来 5 个月内完成,显示贸易冲突与法律风险都可能进一步升高。
Washington is increasingly alarmed by the lack of a clear post-war plan for Iran. Although the US Senate rejected a resolution to force Donald Trump to stop military action without congressional authorization, lawmakers in both parties questioned whether the administration has even defined a “phase two.” Chuck Schumer, Mark Warner, and one Republican senator all warned that the White House has not explained its war aims, post-conflict governance, leadership choices, or America’s role; even the timeline remains fluid, with Pete Hegseth saying it could last 3, 4, 6, or 8 weeks.
Tariff litigation shows an even clearer numerical expansion. Since the Supreme Court agreed to hear the IEEPA case, more than 2,000 importers have sued in the US Court of International Trade seeking refunds from $175 billion in duties paid by 300,000 US importers. The larger earlier wave came from Trump’s first-term China tariffs: in 2018, Section 301 duties first imposed a 25% rate on roughly $50 billion of Chinese imports, then the disputed “modification” mechanism expanded coverage 10-fold to as much as $550 billion, close to the full US-China trade portfolio.
That older case now matters more because the Trump administration is preparing to pivot to Section 301 after temporary tariffs expire. More than 4,200 importers filed copycat suits, and federal courts previously upheld the government’s ability to modify tariffs, making the core issue whether that power is effectively unlimited. HMTX argues to the Supreme Court that modification cannot become a license to raise tariffs at will without congressional safeguards. At the same time, Jamieson Greer said Section 301 investigations will be completed within the next five months, suggesting that both trade confrontation and legal exposure may intensify further.