在二〇二六年二月四日十三时十五分（东八区）背景下，俄罗斯于周二以本年度迄今最大规模的无人机与飞弹攻击，打破对基辅等城市能源设施的短暂停歇；气温跌破零下２０℃（约零下４℉），停电延续，民众以帐篷在室内保温。美国总统特朗普称于周四要求俄罗斯总统普京在极端严寒下停火一周；克里姆林宫则称相关安排已于二月一日到期。美、俄、乌官员在阿联酋进行为期２天谈判，且上月已在阿布达比举行同类会谈；任何潜在停火的军事参数被讨论，但俄方领土要求仍未解决。
乌克兰能源系统在密集空袭下显著脆弱：周六电网出现大范围断电并外溢影响摩尔多瓦，基辅供热再度中断且仅在前一日才恢复。欧洲政府因被排除于谈判之外，转而以避免人道灾难与新一轮难民潮为目标加速援助；乌方估计仍需撑过约３０个寒冷日直至约三月初，形成以天为单位的支援竞赛。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称将运送数百台发电机以维持供热与照明。欧洲亦拟在二〇二二年全面入侵满４年之际于本月底推出新一轮制裁并加码针对「影子船队」；另有说法指美方已准备更多制裁但未见落地。
基辅左岸特罗耶希奇纳约５０万人口区域被描述为高度脆弱点：紧急部门设置６顶大型绿色帐篷供取暖、充电与餐饮，居民在缺热水、停电致电炉不可用情境下依赖小型燃气火焰烹饪；有人报告公寓最长可连续断电１８小时。乌克兰最大民营能源公司执行长提姆琴科警告大城市可能再现更严重停电，并称至少需２至３周停火才能部分修复电厂运行。俄方否认以民用基础设施为目标；乌方称其构成战争罪，德国政府曾表态支持此定性。乌方对俄油炼设施等的反制打击近期多有停歇；俄边境别尔哥罗德州州长格拉德科夫称遭飞弹击中后抢修供电与供热。多名受访者在对腐败、士气与政府能力的悲观之上，仍呈现一致的量化底线：在零下温度与能源中断风险下维持生存与拒绝领土让步。
As of February 4, 2026 at 1:15 PM (GMT+8), Russia on Tuesday resumed and escalated its campaign with its largest drone-and-missile barrage of the year against energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other major cities, ending a brief lull. With temperatures dropping below -20°C (-4°F), blackouts persisted and some residents kept warm by sleeping in indoor tents. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for a one-week halt to strikes during the extreme cold, but the Kremlin said that arrangement had expired on Feb. 1. US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials held two days of talks in the United Arab Emirates after similar meetings in Abu Dhabi last month, discussing military parameters for a potential ceasefire, while Russia’s territorial demands remained unresolved.
Ukraine’s energy system is described as increasingly fragile under sustained air assaults: on Saturday, widespread grid outages spilled over into neighboring Moldova, and Kyiv lost heating again after it had been restored only a day earlier. With European governments sidelined from the negotiations, they are accelerating aid to avert a humanitarian disaster and a new refugee wave, framing it as a race against time because Ukraine estimates it must endure about 30 more cold days until around early March. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe is sending hundreds of generators to keep heat and light on. Europe is also preparing another sanctions package to coincide with the four-year mark of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion later this month, including tougher action on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” while officials said the US has prepared additional sanctions but there is no sign they have been implemented.
Kyiv’s left-bank district of Troeshchyna—home to about 500,000 people—is portrayed as a key vulnerability point: emergency services set up six large green tents where residents can warm up, charge devices, and get food and hot drinks. With no hot water and electricity cuts making electric stoves unusable, some residents rely on small gas flames for basic cooking, and one pensioner reported outages lasting up to 18 hours. DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko warned that worse blackouts in major cities, including Kyiv, are possible and said at least 2 to 3 weeks of a truce would be needed to partially restore power-plant operations. Russia denies targeting civilian infrastructure; Ukraine calls the strikes war crimes, a characterization Germany’s government has supported, and while Ukraine’s retaliatory strikes on Russian refineries have mostly paused in recent weeks, Russia’s Belgorod region reported repairs after a missile strike disrupted power and heating—amid public frustration over corruption, morale, and state capacity, many residents still emphasize two bottom lines: survive sub-zero conditions and refuse territorial concessions.