习近平警告唐纳德·川普台湾的重要性至关紧要,文章称两位领导人都知道,该地区若爆发战争将摧毁他们的经济。川普曾称习近平是「好朋友」,拆除了许多美国用来挑战独裁政权的工具,表明对中国投资持开放态度,并欢迎600,000名中国学生进入美国大学。他在3月批准中国购买伊朗石油并实施了一些二级制裁,同时习近平告诉川普他不会向伊朗出售武器。
中国也有自己的理由希望稳定:有10-20mn个中国工作岗位依赖与美国的贸易,而在青年失业率达到双位数之际,中国领导层宁愿延长这场贸易休战。习近平正准备在明年寻求第四个任期,北京希望向国内受众表明,它能够避免与华盛顿对峙。文章称,脱钩只是幻想,并指出日本在15年内把对中国稀土的依赖从90%以上降至60%,超过三分之一的美国活性药物成分是完全从中国采购,而中国公司在先进晶片、动物饲料等方面也依赖美国。
文章说,美国和中国应接受四个残酷的事实:脱钩不可能,针对性的再耦合是明智的,「战略竞争」应被新的措辞取代,而且应培育温和派。文章称,今年春天聚集的两打美中专家一致认为,找到新的措辞是关键,候选说法包括「共同进化」和「有管理的相互依赖」。文章最后指出,当下的目标或许只是一种「冷和平」,保留足够的沟通渠道以防止局势恶化,而政治僵局没有军事解方,只有持续且富有创意的外交。
Xi Jinping warned Donald Trump about the critical importance of Taiwan, and the article says both leaders know a war in the region would destroy their economies. Trump has called Xi a "good friend," dismantled many US tools used to challenge autocracy, signalled openness to Chinese investment, and welcomed 600,000 Chinese students to US universities. He approved Chinese purchases of Iranian oil in March and imposed some secondary sanctions, while Xi told Trump he would not sell arms to Iran.
China has its own reasons to want stability: between 10-20mn Chinese jobs depend on trade with the US, and the Chinese leadership would rather extend the trade truce amid double-digit youth unemployment. Xi is preparing to seek a fourth term next year, and Beijing wants to show domestic audiences that it can avoid a showdown with Washington. The article says decoupling is a fantasy, noting that Japan cut its reliance on Chinese rare earths from over 90 per cent to 60 per cent in 15 years, more than a third of American active pharmaceutical ingredients are sourced exclusively from China, and Chinese companies rely on the US for advanced chips, animal feed and more.
The article says the US and China should accept four hard truths: decoupling is impossible, specific recoupling is sensible, “strategic competition” should be replaced with new language, and moderates should be nurtured. It says two dozen American and Chinese experts convened this spring agreed that finding new language is key, with alternatives including “coevolution” and “managed interdependence.” It concludes that the goal right now may just be a “cold peace,” keeping enough channels open to prevent deterioration, and that there is no military solution to the political impasse, only sustained and creative diplomacy.