严谨的 AGI 预测面临缺乏精确定义的挑战。根据 RAND 于三月份发布的详细预测回顾，针对 AGI 到来时间的估计正持续提前，但预测的核心区间仍集中于 2030 年代至 2040 年代之间。
为降低衡量难度，Kalshi 聚焦于 OpenAI 在特定日期前正式宣布达成 AGI 的机率。在 Greg Brockman 发表相关言论后，该平台交易员目前认为该公司在明年年底前宣称达成 AGI 的机率约为 50/50，较先前显著上升。
OpenAI announced the rollout of its newest model, Astra, on Thursday, with President Greg Brockman framing its release as the potential dawn of the artificial general intelligence (AGI) era. Nevertheless, as of Thursday afternoon, prediction market traders on Kalshi—benchmarked against the LM Arena leaderboard—still considered Anthropic more likely than OpenAI to hold the premier AI model by the close of the year. Still, by 4:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, Astra had roughly doubled OpenAI's chances of leading by year-end compared to earlier in the week.
Rigorous forecasting regarding AGI claims remains challenging due to the absence of a crisp definition. A comprehensive review published by RAND in March indicated that while timeline estimates for the arrival of AGI are continually compressing, the consensus projections remain concentrated within the 2030s and 2040s.
Kalshi circumvents definition ambiguities by tracking the odds that OpenAI will explicitly declare achieving AGI by specified dates. Following Greg Brockman's remarks, platform traders now price the likelihood of the company making such a declaration by the end of next year at approximately 50/50, marking a substantial increase from previous levels.