《经济学人》在石油价格预测上遭遇了严重失误。在今年四月底美以袭击伊朗后，本刊曾预测油价到年底才会降至每桶88美元，并批评认为油价会走低的交易员过于乐观。然而，如今布伦特原油价格已跌至每桶70美元左右。这一预测失误主要源于两个预判偏差：一是低估了特朗普在面对国内选民压力时让步的决心，美伊最终在六月达成了临时协议以重启霍尔木兹海峡；二是未能预料到中国原油进口量会同比骤降每日500万桶，其庞大且不透明的原油储备发挥了强有力的缓冲作用。

尽管本刊曾因在1999年错误预测油价将跌至每桶5美元而遭到批评，但数据分析显示我们的整体预测记录依然可靠。通过引入人工智能对本世纪发表的7,000篇社论进行量化分析，结果表明在偏离市场共识不远时，本刊的预测准确率很高；唯有在面对极端或异常预测时，出错的概率才会显著上升。对于倡导自由市场的媒体而言，被市场机制击败并不可耻，因为流动市场中的资产价格本身就是人类集体智慧的结晶，它汇聚了从散户到欧洲资深交易员等无数个体零散的信息。

虽然预测市场能提供丰富的市场共识，但独立且逻辑严密的预测依然不可或缺，因为它促使读者深化思考并为市场定价提供基础。相较于某些为了避免犯错而写得极其枯燥和公式化的官僚报告，本刊将继续坚持提出明确、尖锐的观点和预测，并愿意为此承担偶尔出错的代价。我们对此次预测失误向读者致歉，但在未来的不确定市场中，类似的预测尝试和误差依然会继续发生。

The Economist recently admitted a significant forecasting error regarding global oil prices. Following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran in April, the publication dismissed traders' expectations of lower prices as unrealistic, predicting Brent crude would only fall to $88 per barrel by year-end. Instead, Brent crude is now trading at just over $70 per barrel. This miscalculation stemmed from two key factors: underestimating Donald Trump's willingness to compromise with Iran due to domestic pressure from US motorists, which led to a June deal on the Strait of Hormuz, and failing to anticipate that China would slash its crude imports by 5 million barrels per day compared to last year.

While critics often cite the publication's infamous 1999 prediction that oil would fall to $5 a barrel, a systematic review suggests this failure is an outlier. An AI-assisted analysis of 7,000 of the magazine's leaders from this century revealed that its forecasts are generally accurate when they deviate moderately from consensus, though extreme predictions are naturally more prone to error. For a free-market newspaper, being humbled by the market is a reminder that liquid asset prices represent the compiled judgment of countless individuals, ranging from retail investors to high-rolling European oil traders, making it difficult for central planners or commentators to consistently outperform the price mechanism.

Although prediction markets now capture consensus across many events, independent forecasting remains essential because well-reasoned arguments sharpen public debate and provide the raw material that markets aggregate into prices. The easiest way to avoid being wrong is to write bland, non-committal reports, but this publication will continue to take clear stances and make predictions to spare its readers such tedium. Apologizing for the current mistake, the editors acknowledge that while errors are an inevitable cost of this approach, maintaining strong, predictive opinions remains a service worth paying for.

Source: We woz wrong about oil

Subtitle: The market bested us. But for The Economist, there is no shame in that

Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 09:27 AM