中国在2021年以来的房地产低迷和长期通缩中出现了广泛财富回撤：居民住房资产平均缩水约五分之一（约20%），工资增长疲弱，青年失业率徘徊在约17%。这一组合显示出资产价格、劳动收入与就业预期同步走弱的统计性下行趋势。

与广泛承压形成对比的是“弄潮儿”的高技术上升通道，其门槛明显收窄到顶尖教育与稀缺技术：每年约1200万名毕业生中，只有46万来自“985”高校（约3.8%）。收入分化也在扩大，2020年以来薪资最高的前10%软件工程师实际工资年均增长8%，而DeepSeek给出的年薪超过140万元，约为中国白领平均水平的10倍。

国家引导资本与政策支持正在强化这种集中趋势：企业可获得研发、租金和出海补贴，并出现每年约1000万元的政府采购合同；中央政府又在12月新增1000亿元创投基金。与此同时，花旗经济学家指出大型工业企业自2014年以来已减少2300万个岗位，显示自动化与产业升级带来“高端增收、总体就业承压”的结构性分化。

China’s property bust and chronic deflation since 2021 have produced broad wealth erosion: residential property, the main household asset, is down about one-fifth (about 20%) on average, wage growth is weak, and youth unemployment is hovering near 17%. Together, these figures indicate a synchronized statistical downtrend in asset values, labor income, and employment expectations.

In contrast to broad losses, the “tide-riders” in strategic tech are advancing through a narrow channel defined by elite education and scarce technical skills: only 460,000 of roughly 12 million annual graduates come from “985” universities (about 3.8%). Income dispersion is widening as well, with real pay for the top tenth of software engineers rising 8% per year since 2020, while DeepSeek has offered salaries above 1.4 million yuan annually, about 10 times the average white-collar level in China.

State-guided capital and policy support are reinforcing this concentration: firms receive subsidies for R&D, rent, and overseas travel, and examples include government contracts around 10 million yuan per year; in December, the central government added a new 100 billion yuan startup fund. At the same time, Citigroup economists note that large industrial firms have shed 23 million jobs since 2014, indicating a structural split in which high-end sectors gain income while aggregate employment remains under pressure.

Source: How to get rich in modern China

Subtitle: Some of the country’s brightest are cashing in on a state-backed surge

Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 08:17 上午 | Beijing