中国台湾发布的《2025中国监测报告》指出，中国长期经济疲软正在加剧社会摩擦并侵蚀改革开放以来形成的社会契约。研究从经济、金融、财政、社会和政治五个维度构建了50项长期监测指标。报告强调，尽管政策支持制造业升级，但私人投资收缩导致固定资产投资自1995年以来首次下降。2024年消费增速放缓至3.7%，居民消费价格指数徘徊在零附近，实际呈现通缩特征。
增长更多依赖出口，而内需疲弱与供应链本地化压低进口，使贸易顺差首次达到1.2万亿美元的历史新高。这引发了对“China Shock 2.0”和通缩外溢的全球担忧。同时，外资撤离导致高技术产品在出口中的占比下降，削弱了产业升级成效。经济下行已转化为收入增长放缓、失业上升、债务负担加重及对前景信心下降，生育率和结婚率快速下滑。疫情后抗议事件增加，其动因从直接经济损失转向对制度性不公的感知。
政治上，反腐行动在2025年再度强化，四中全会上中央委员及候补委员的显著缺席属改革开放以来罕见，且集中于由习近平提拔的解放军高级军官。作者认为，这种高度集中却焦虑的“斯大林式清洗”削弱了治理能力。资源受限下，安全与稳定继续优先于增长，2026年经济仍将高度依赖出口；这一轨迹对外部关系的约束或扩展效应仍有待观察。
Taiwan’s “2025 China Monitoring Report” warns that prolonged economic weakness is intensifying social friction and eroding the social contract formed during decades of reform and opening up. The study tracks five dimensions—economy, finance, fiscal policy, society, and politics—using 50 long-term indicators. It highlights that despite strong policy support for manufacturing upgrades, shrinking private investment caused the first decline in fixed-asset investment since 1995. Consumption growth slowed to 3.7% in 2024, while the consumer price index hovered around zero, signaling effective deflation.
Growth is increasingly export-driven, while weak domestic demand and supply-chain localization reduced imports, pushing the trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion. This has raised global concern over “China Shock 2.0” and deflation exports. At the same time, foreign capital withdrawal lowered the share of high-technology products in exports, questioning industrial upgrading effectiveness. The downturn has translated into slower income growth, rising unemployment, heavier debt burdens, and declining confidence, alongside rapid drops in fertility and marriage rates. Post-COVID protests have increased, shifting from direct economic losses to perceived systemic injustice.
Politically, anti-corruption campaigns intensified again in 2025, with unprecedented absences of Central Committee and alternate members at the Fourth Plenum, concentrated among senior PLA officers promoted by Xi Jinping. The authors argue that such increasingly centralized yet anxious “Stalin-style purges” weaken governance capacity. With constrained resources, security and stability continue to outweigh growth, leaving China’s 2026 economy highly dependent on exports; whether this trajectory expands or constrains external maneuvering remains unresolved.