← 返回 Avalaches

美中围绕 AI 主导权的竞争正延伸到轨道数据中心:Google、SpaceX 等计划在近地轨道部署由太阳能供电、以激光光通信互联的计算卫星网络,以满足 AI 计算需求的快速上升,并争夺低地球轨道的经济与军事优势。

中国目前略占先机。初创公司 ADA Space 与由 Alibaba Group 等支持的 Zhejiang Lab 于 5 月发射 12 颗搭载计算设备的卫星,形成“三体计算星座”第一阶段;其合计算力为每秒 5 quadrillion 次运算,等同一台超级计算机。该项目最终目标为 2,800 颗卫星、每秒 1 quintillion 次运算,用于对地观测数据的实时处理。另一个由北京市牵头的项目拟在 700–800 km 高度、昼夜交界附近的太阳同步轨道建设集中式设施:2027 年完成的第一阶段目标算力为每秒 1 quintillion 次运算,最终阶段预计电力能力达 1 gigawatt,约等于 1 座核反应堆。

美国方案并行推进。Google 于 11 月宣布 Project Suncatcher,将与 Planet Labs 在 2027 年初前发射 2 颗搭载 Google Tensor Processing Unit 芯片的计算卫星,并长期指向可替代 terawatt 级数据中心(用电相当于超过 1,000 座核反应堆)的技术。Starcloud 亦于 11 月发射搭载 Nvidia H100 的 Starcloud-1,并计划在今年下半年发射算力提升 100 倍的商用卫星,远期构想以数以万计卫星组成 5-GW 级数据中心。由于太空只能依靠辐射散热且芯片受辐射损伤,具备冗余的星座路线被预期更占优;但全面部署仍受技术差异、潜在攻击风险与地面备份需求制约,而 SpaceX 依托拥有数千颗卫星的 Starlink 与计划今年用于发射小卫星的 Starship,被视为降成本的关键变量。

The U.S.-China AI rivalry is extending to orbital data centers: companies such as Google and SpaceX are planning solar-powered computing networks in low Earth orbit, linked by laser optical communications, to meet rapidly rising AI compute demand and to gain strategic advantage in an economically and militarily critical domain.

China holds a small lead. Startup ADA Space and Zhejiang Lab, backed by Alibaba Group and others, launched 12 computing-equipped satellites in May as the first phase of the Three-Body Computing Constellation; their combined performance is 5 quadrillion operations per second, equivalent to a supercomputer. The project ultimately targets 2,800 satellites and 1 quintillion operations per second for real-time Earth-observation processing. A separate Beijing-led effort plans a centralized facility in a sun-synchronous orbit near the day-night boundary at 700–800 km altitude: a first phase due by 2027 aims for 1 quintillion operations per second, while a final stage anticipates 1 gigawatt of power, roughly one nuclear reactor.

U.S. plans are scaling in parallel. Google’s Project Suncatcher, announced in November, partners with Planet Labs to launch 2 satellites with Google Tensor Processing Unit chips by early 2027 and aims long term at technology that could replace terawatt-scale data centers (power equivalent to over 1,000 nuclear reactors). Starcloud also launched Starcloud-1 in November with an Nvidia H100 and plans a commercial satellite with 100× more compute in the latter half of this year, with a longer-term vision of a 5-GW-class center built from tens of thousands of satellites. Because space permits only radiative heat rejection and chips face radiation damage, redundant constellations are expected to dominate; full deployment still faces engineering gaps, attack risk, and the need for ground backups, while SpaceX’s Starlink (thousands of satellites) and Starship launches planned for this year are positioned as major cost levers.

2026-01-15 (Thursday) · a41248f96285849dac399b5e6068107e33f2b4b9