尽管地缘政治动荡不断，标普500指数在2026年初仍几乎与2025年底持平、略低于历史高点，但市场内部已出现剧烈再定价。软件股较去年近期高点下跌约三分之一，IBM在2月23日单日下挫13%，而受益于“重资产、低淘汰风险”与AI硬件需求的板块走强，闪迪股价今年已翻倍以上。

期权所隐含的个股走势分散度处于过去十年中98%时间以上的高位，显示投资者正在快速重估商业模式风险。信用市场也同步分化：美国科技企业高收益债相对美债的利差由去年夏季约3个百分点扩大至当前约5个百分点，而其他行业整体几乎未变。

杠杆贷款与私人信贷因对科技和商业服务敞口较高，面临更大尾部风险；UBS预计到2026年末其违约率分别上升2.5和4个百分点，若冲击加剧则增幅可能翻倍。2025年末大型私募信贷基金已出现资金流出，2月18日Blue Owl永久限制零售基金赎回，叠加Ares、Blackstone与KKR股价走弱，表明波动可能从股市向融资条件传导并抑制AI基础设施投资。

Despite geopolitical drama, the S&P 500 in early 2026 is almost unchanged from end-2025 and just below a record, but internal market repricing has been intense. Software stocks are about one-third below a recent 2025 peak, IBM fell 13% on February 23, and winners tied to “heavy assets, low obsolescence” and AI hardware demand surged, with Sandisk up more than 100% this year.

Options-implied stock dispersion is higher than at 98% of points in the past decade, signaling rapid repricing of business-model risk. Credit markets show the same split: U.S. tech risky-bond spreads over Treasuries widened from about 3 percentage points last summer to about 5 points now, while most non-tech spreads barely moved.

Leveraged loans and private credit, with heavier exposure to tech and business-services borrowers, face larger tail risk; UBS projects default rates rising by 2.5 and 4 percentage points by late 2026, and roughly twice that in a severe case. Late-2025 fund outflows, Blue Owl’s permanent retail redemption limits on February 18, and declines in Ares, Blackstone, and KKR indicate volatility may propagate from equities into tighter credit conditions and slower AI infrastructure buildout.

Source: Markets are churning furiously beneath the surface

Subtitle: AI is prompting investors to reassess every business model under the su

Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 08:24 上午