人口结构使问题更尖锐：日本约1.23亿人口中，近三分之一年满65岁，超过十分之一已过80岁；平均寿命约85岁，比美国长约5年。风险也体现在诈骗损失上：2024年日本约4.62亿美元的诈骗损失中，高龄者占65%。失智症本身也在扩大，预计到2040年将影响约580万人，相当于65岁以上人口的15%。
财务能力下滑会累积成经济拖累：研究显示，60岁以上且有认知退化症状者，平均金融财富比认知健康者少约40%；老年扶养比已达每100名工作年龄人口对50.3名高龄者。家庭层面仍缺乏规划（仅约三分之一的65岁以上与子女谈过财务），而在由子女代管者中约11%曾遇到帐户被冻结。若60岁以上族群只多花其持有财富的0.25%，估计可让GDP提高1%；但同时，60岁以上已占散户投资人约42%，加上失智导致投票权与交易受限，可能影响市场流动性、并购与公司治理。
Japan faces a “dementia money” macro risk: seniors showing cognitive decline now control assets worth nearly half of GDP, making trillions more vulnerable to mismanagement, fraud, or inactivity via account freezes. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank estimates this group holds about ¥315 trillion (around $2 trillion) in liquid assets, and the pool is projected to rise sharply in coming years.
Demographics amplify the exposure. Out of roughly 123 million people, almost one-third are 65+, and more than one in 10 is over 80; life expectancy averages about 85, roughly five years longer than in the US. Fraud risk is already measurable: in 2024, seniors accounted for 65% of Japan’s $462 million in scam losses. Dementia prevalence is also expected to grow, reaching about 5.8 million people by 2040, or 15% of those aged 65 and above.
Financial decline can translate into slower growth and wealth erosion. Research cited finds people over 60 with cognitive-decline symptoms hold about 40% less financial wealth than cognitively healthy peers, while Japan’s old-age dependency ratio has reached 50.3 seniors per 100 working-age people. Yet only about one-third of over-65s have discussed finances with their children, and about 11% of adult children managing parents’ money have seen accounts frozen. One estimate says GDP would rise 1% if over-60s spent just 0.25% of their wealth; meanwhile, people 60+ make up 42% of retail investors, and dementia-related voting and selling constraints can disrupt liquidity, M&A, and governance.
