疲软的货币反映了日本庞大的债务超载，该债务已超过其国内生产毛额的 200%。首相 Sanae Takaichi 扩张性的经济政策可能会进一步扩大这项债务。虽然 Brookings Institution 的 Robin Brooks 将此情况视为债务驱动的货币危机，但 Jesper Koll 预测日圆兑美元可能会达到 200 元。Jesper Koll 强调，疲软的日圆有利于企业获利，日圆每贬值 10 元，上市公司的盈余就会增加约 8%，而这些公司约有 65% 的盈余来自出口或海外生产。
尽管面临总体经济压力和自二月选举以来「Takaichi Trade」的降温，但由于与美国相比估值较低，且过去十年以当地货币计算的盈余成长更快，日本股市仍然极具吸引力。由 Shinzo Abe 发起的公司治理改革正取得显著成效。GMO 基金管理集团的 Rick Friedman 和 John Thorndike 认为，日本正处于一场奖励主动所有权的长期结构性改革进程的中期阶段，尽管投资人可能需要对日圆进行避险。
Japan's economic normalization faces challenges as the 10-year government bond yield rose above 2.7% and the yen surpassed 160 per dollar, indicating pressure for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Although market expectations anticipated two hikes by the end of the year, the Bank of Japan has been slow to act. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin of the Bank of Singapore notes that to stabilize the yen, the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates above the inflation rate, which is difficult as core inflation (excluding food and fuel) remains near 1%, despite core CPI excluding fuel and fresh food previously rising above 4%.
The weak currency reflects Japan's massive debt overhang, which exceeds 200% of its gross domestic product. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansive economic policies could further expand this debt. While Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution views the situation as a debt-driven currency crisis, Jesper Koll predicts the yen could reach 200 per dollar. Jesper Koll highlights that a weak yen benefits corporate earnings, where a depreciation of 10 yen boosts listed companies' earnings by approximately 8%, with about 65% of their earnings generated from exports or offshore production.
Despite macroeconomic pressures and the easing of the "Takaichi Trade" since the February election, Japanese equities remain highly attractive due to lower valuations compared to the United States and stronger earnings growth in local currency over the past decade. Corporate governance reforms initiated by Shinzo Abe are yielding significant results. Rick Friedman and John Thorndike of the GMO fund management group argue that Japan is in the middle innings of a long-term structural reform process that rewards active ownership, though investors may need to hedge the yen before doing so.