数据分化十分明显：美国软体 ETF IGV 今年下跌 22%，而半导体股票大涨；截至 end-January，该基金前 10 大持仓中有 7 档是晶片公司，其中仅 Nvidia 就接近 10% 的组合权重。Evans 只保留了少量 Microsoft 部位及 call options，并卖出 SAP、ServiceNow、Adobe、HubSpot 的持股，转向网路、光纤与资料中心电力等基础设施受益方向。他也在 January 增加基础设施软体曝险，理由是营运讯号强劲，包括 Datadog 股价在 1 week 上涨超过 10%，以及 Fastly 股价上涨超过 100%。
Evans 预期将出现严重整并，最终只有少数软体公司存活；他把这次可能的洗牌比作 2000s 报纸业受冲击，并警告随著模型能力提升，投资人应显著低配应用软体。他指出除营收风险外还有 2 条财务压力渠道：以现金取代股权薪酬稀释，以及为追赶 AI 而进行收购支出，两者都会威胁自由现金流。同时，他的立场并非绝对：他认为复杂企业套件、资安与基础设施软体相对更具韧性，但基础设施加资安仍低于基金资产的 7%，突显其选择性信念与对终局估值的高度不确定性。
Polar Capital manager Nick Evans said AI poses an existential threat to application software, and his positioning has been validated by performance: his $12 billion global technology fund beat 99% of peers over 1 year and 97% over 5 years. He argues software valuations still underprice disruption risk, even after a sharp selloff, and he has largely exited application software names despite prior holdings in major vendors. The backdrop is a widening market split where AI demand has favored hardware while software sentiment has deteriorated.
The numerical divergence is stark: the US software ETF IGV is down 22% this year, while semiconductor shares have surged, and by end-January 7 of the fund’s top 10 positions were chip companies, with Nvidia alone near 10% of portfolio weight. Evans kept only a small Microsoft position plus call options, sold stakes in SAP, ServiceNow, Adobe, and HubSpot, and rotated toward infrastructure beneficiaries such as networking, fiber optics, and data-center power. He also increased infrastructure software exposure in January, citing strong operating signals including Datadog shares up more than 10% in 1 week and Fastly shares up by more than 100%.
Evans expects a severe consolidation where only a small subset of software firms survives, comparing the potential shakeout to newspaper disruption in the 2000s, and warns investors to stay significantly underweight application software as model capability improves. He highlights 2 financial pressure channels beyond revenue risk: equity-compensation dilution replacement with cash and acquisition spending for AI catch-up, both threatening free cash flow. At the same time, his stance is not absolute: he views complex enterprise suites, cybersecurity, and infrastructure software as relatively more resilient, yet infrastructure plus cybersecurity remains under 7% of fund assets, underscoring both selective conviction and high uncertainty around terminal values.