文中指出，中国对日本首相高市在11月7日提出“台海危机可能构成日本存亡危机事态”的表述作出过度反应，并在11月14日发布赴日旅行警告。分析认为，北京因与华盛顿在10月首脑会谈后出现的“战术性缓和”而更有底气施压东京。欧洲的做法提供量化参照：自6月起，北约秘书长公开赞扬特朗普对伊朗的军事打击；9月英国首相以罕见规格再度授予特朗普国事访问礼遇。此类奉承外交虽不体面，却成功避免美国削弱对乌克兰的支持。
日本在10月的首次接触中采用同样策略，高市称特朗普“终结多场冲突”为“历史性成就”，并表示打算提名其为诺贝尔和平奖候选人，同时宣布向华盛顿赠送250株樱花以庆祝美国建国250周年。会谈结果量化上对东京有利：特朗普未提出此前预期的防务负担或对美投资新要求，但曾一度要求日本停止自俄能源进口。尽管如此，日本仍面临结构性风险，因为美国已将超10%的海军兵力调往加勒比用于打击贩毒集团，而特朗普公开将美中称为“G2”，态度上对亚洲安全投入不明。
欧洲的经验显示，高效外交依赖多点协调。英国利用长期英美联盟；意大利右翼政府与特朗普建立个人关系；德国通过大幅提升防卫预算赢得其尊重。8月中旬担忧美国可能倾向俄罗斯时，英德法意领导人立即联合访美。多位学者主张日本、韩国、澳大利亚与印度应复制欧洲模式，用协同策略维系美国在亚洲的承诺。四国各自具备进入华府的独立渠道，包括“五眼联盟”、国会内不断增加的韩裔议员，以及印度裔美国政治人物的扩张，使分工式外交成为现实需要。
The article notes that China reacted sharply to Japanese prime minister Takaichi’s November 7 statement that a Taiwan conflict could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, later issuing a travel warning on November 14. Analysts attribute Beijing’s confidence to a “tactical détente” with Washington following the October Xi–Trump summit. Europe provides quantifiable precedent: since June, NATO’s secretary-general publicly praised Trump’s strike on Iran, and in September the UK granted him another state visit. Such flattery, while unseemly, has helped prevent reductions in US support for Ukraine.
Japan adopted a similar strategy in its October diplomatic debut. Takaichi called Trump’s claims of ending multiple conflicts a “historic achievement,” signaled intent to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, and pledged 250 cherry trees to Washington for America’s 250th anniversary. The meeting’s outcome was favorable for Tokyo: Trump made no new demands on defense burden-sharing or investment, though he briefly pressed Japan to halt Russian energy imports. Structural risks remain, as over 10% of the US Navy is currently focused on anti-cartel operations in the Caribbean, and Trump frames the US–China relationship as a “G2,” leaving US commitment to Asia uncertain.
European experience indicates that effective diplomacy relies on coordinated workload-sharing. The UK leverages its deep alliance with the US; Italy’s right-wing government has cultivated personal ties with Trump; Germany gained his respect through major defense-spending increases. When concerns arose in mid-August that Trump might tilt toward Russia, leaders from the UK, Germany, France, and Italy mounted an urgent joint visit to Washington. Scholars argue Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India should adopt a similar coordinated approach. Each has distinct access channels—Five Eyes membership, growing Korean-American representation in Congress, and the expanding influence of Indian Americans—making divided, synchronized diplomacy a strategic necessity.