在本周的封面专题中，俄罗斯实业家兼化肥大亨安德烈·梅尔尼琴科通过与《经济学人》进行近60小时的采访和发表网络文章，打破沉默，警告他的国家面临着迫在眉睫的灾难。作为俄罗斯最大的实业家以及于2023年回国的务实圈内人，梅尔尼琴科代表了在弗拉基米尔·普京政权下大亨们不满的重大声音。他的警告正值乌克兰战争直接影响到俄罗斯国内前线之际，其特征包括加油站因能源基础设施受袭而出现排队和斗殴、克里米亚因无人机袭击而被孤立，以及因强迫征兵而日益上升的怨恨。这些问题削弱了普京关于军事行动正按计划进行且突破在即的官方叙事。
梅尔尼琴科提出了如果当前的轨道继续下去，俄罗斯长期未来的四个危险场景。首先，随着敌对的军阀争夺资源和核武器的控制权，该国可能会陷入无政府状态。其次，俄罗斯可能成为中国的从属国，作为原材料供应商和地缘政治缓冲区。第三，它最终可能成为欧洲边缘一个贫困的、民族主义的实体。第四，它可能会转向内部，成为一个模仿朝鲜的封闭且军事化的国家，与外部世界保持永久的冲突。他担心，为了打破目前的僵局，普京可能会加剧与北约的对抗，甚至使用战术核武器来恐吓乌克兰的欧洲盟友。
为了避免这些结果，梅尔尼琴科呼吁西方避免将冲突推向绝对极限，并敦促建立尊重俄罗斯主权的和平共处。他暗中表明，俄罗斯必须摆脱一人统治以放权并建立可预测性，尽管他没有直接倡导民主。这种对改革的推动面临着统治集团中安全官员的激烈反对，他们已经主导政治版图二十多年。梅尔尼琴科将此与俄罗斯在1905年日俄战争中的失败进行了历史类比——那次失败迫使沙皇尼古拉二世暂时接受了公民自由和立法议会——他警告说，未能实施持久的改革最终将导致系统性崩溃。
In this week's cover feature, Russian industrialist and fertilizer magnate Andrey Melnichenko breaks his silence through nearly 60 hours of interviews and an online essay with The Economist, warning of the looming disaster facing his country. As Russia's biggest industrialist and a pragmatic insider who returned in 2023, Melnichenko represents a significant voice of tycoon discontent under Vladimir Putin’s regime. His warning comes as the war in Ukraine directly impacts the Russian domestic front, characterized by fuel lines, fistfights at gas stations due to energy infrastructure attacks, the isolation of Crimea by drones, and rising resentment over forced enlistment. These issues undermine Putin’s official narrative that the military campaign is proceeding on track and a breakthrough is imminent.
Melnichenko presents four dangerous scenarios for Russia's long-term future if the current trajectory continues. First, the country could collapse into anarchy as rival warlords battle for resources and control over nuclear weapons. Second, Russia could become a subordinate dependency of China, serving as a raw materials supplier and geopolitical buffer. Third, it could end up as an impoverished, nationalist entity on the periphery of Europe. Fourth, it could turn inward to become a closed, militarized state modeled after North Korea, which would remain in permanent conflict with the outside world. He fears that to break the current deadlock, Putin might escalate the confrontation with NATO or even employ a tactical nuclear weapon to terrorize Ukraine's European allies.
To avoid these outcomes, Melnichenko calls on the West to refrain from pushing the conflict to its absolute limits and urges for a peaceful co-existence that respects Russian sovereignty. He implicitly suggests that Russia must transition away from one-man rule to devolve power and establish predictability, although he stops short of advocating for democracy. This push for reform faces fierce opposition from the ruling securocrats who have dominated the political landscape for over two decades. Drawing a historical parallel to Russia’s defeat in the 1905 Russo-Japanese War, which forced Tsar Nicholas II to temporarily accept civil liberties and a legislative assembly, Melnichenko warns that a failure to implement lasting reforms will ultimately lead to systemic collapse.
Source: The man who would change Russia
Subtitle: A leading oligarch speaks out, warning of the looming disaster facing his country
Dateline: Jul 09, 2026 10:40 AM
