这一下降反映了家庭和企业需求偏弱。按揭相关的居民中长期新贷款（住房融资代理）同比从去年的约5000亿元降至295亿元，即便3月通常是交易旺季。消费者信心虽有改善，但仍远低于2022年前的水平，当时疫情封控与房地产泡沫破裂首次损害了市场情绪。
市场与学界仍预期宽松政策有限。Pantheon Macroeconomics 的 Duncan Wrigley 表示，PBOC短期内不太可能降息或下调存款准备金率；伊朗战争推高通胀预期，且近一年仅有一次10个基点政策利率下调。彭博经济学家 Eric Zhu 认为，当局在政策上保留后续加码空间，尤其在战争冲击持续或扩大时，财政政策可能需承担更多重任；除一线城市外房地产仍偏弱，主权债发行从1.5兆降至1.2兆，企业债务融资仅部分对冲影响，且资金市场利率下行显示流动性偏过剩，资金未有效转化为信贷，利好政策缓解空间受限。
China’s March aggregate financing rose only 5.2 trillion yuan (5.2e12, about RMB 5,200 billion), versus 5.9 trillion yuan a year earlier and below Bloomberg economists’ median forecast of 5.6 trillion. New bank lending in the month was 3.0 trillion yuan, also below expectations. After a sharp seasonal rebound at the start of the year, year-on-year credit growth slowed to 7.9%, the weakest since November 2024.
The slowdown reflects weak demand from households and firms. New household mid- and long-term mortgage-related loans, a proxy for housing credit, fell year-on-year from about 5,000 billion yuan to 295 billion yuan even though March is usually a peak housing month. Consumer sentiment has improved but remains far below pre-2022 levels, when COVID lockdowns and the property bust first knocked sentiment.
Markets and economists still see limited near-term monetary easing. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Duncan Wrigley said the PBOC is unlikely to cut rates or reserve requirements soon, with Iran-war inflation expectations elevated and only one 10-basis-point policy-rate cut so far this year. Bloomberg Economics’ Eric Zhu said policymakers are likely keeping room to support later if war effects persist or spread, with fiscal policy taking more of the load; housing remains weak outside the largest cities, sovereign issuance has slipped from 1.5 trillion to 1.2 trillion yuan, corporate debt financing offsets part of that drag, and signs of excess liquidity from falling money-market rates suggest cash is not fully translating into credit.