文章称伊朗战争造成史上最大的石油供应冲击，霍尔木兹海峡关闭使供应量损失约1400万桶/日。分析人士认为即便只是填补这一下降，布伦特应当远高于150美元/桶，但4月17日现货仍在90美元以下，4月30日仅一度冲上125美元上方。 期货市场却预示2026年底接近88美元，路径是全年每月下滑，这一预期隐含和平协议将迅速达成、海峡重开并且汽油与喷气燃料很快恢复充裕供应。

更严峻的是实体市场：4月20日前，战前经由霍尔木兹通过的油轮已全部靠港，随着库存和在运油量很快跌至2018年卫星追踪以来的最低水平，汽油、柴油和航空煤油出现供应缺口几乎不可避免。美国夏季用油需求即将上升，亚洲柴油与航空煤油已翻倍，欧洲则超过两倍，且已有柴油每桶600美元的报告。

文章认为华盛顿和德黑兰都有妥协激励，但都不一定能控制时间表：伊朗在承压中仍可继续持有筹码谋求更优协议，特朗普或借高油价进行国内政治博弈并以重启打击施压。即使达成协议，完全复工的贸易链条仍可能被去雷、保险成本、油轮调度和产能恢复拖延；关闭导致的油井损伤与停产炼厂的回火也要时间，全球因此可能出现十年来第二次通胀冲击，欧洲与部分亚洲经济体可能从刺激需求转向保障基本运输与关键服务。

The piece says the Iran war created the largest oil-supply shock in history, with closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting roughly 14 million barrels per day. Analysts argued Brent would need to move well above $150 if this gap were to be digested, but spot prices were below $90 on April 17 and only briefly above $125 on April 30.

Yet futures imply monthly declines through 2026, ending around $88, which assumes a quick peace, a reopened strait, and a rapid return of abundant petrol and jet fuel. In that logic, much of the current shock would be reversed even though physical conditions argue otherwise.

By April 20, tankers that had crossed before the war were all docked, while stocks and at-sea volumes are heading to the lowest point since satellite tracking began in 2018, making gaps in petrol, diesel, and jet fuel likely. U.S. summer demand is expected to rise, Asian diesel and jet fuel prices have already doubled, Europe’s are up more than double, and some diesel has reportedly sold at $600 per barrel.

Source: Still in La-La land

Subtitle: Oil prices have risen sharply. Unfortunately, they have further to go

Dateline: The Economist May 2nd 2026