Bain 全球私募股权业务负责人 Rebecca Burack 指出，市场面临的是信心问题，而非缺乏资金，因为各家公司仍持有大量的干粉（待投资金）。收购公司现在必须通过寻找保护现有投资和评估新投资的方法，来适应人工智能带来的风险。目前，退出积压依然严重，分配收益占资产净值的比例处于历史低点，导致许多公司实际上被困在私募股权投资组合中。
因此，资产的持有期限已延长至六到七年，高于历史平均的三到四年。虽然该行业以前在这些持有期内需要大约 5% 的年盈余增长才能实现 2.5 倍的报酬率，但现在则需要约 12% 的年增长率。此外，即使是续存基金交易也面临著审查，这使得未来表现存疑且估值较高的老旧资产特别难以出售。
According to a Bain & Co. report, the value of private equity technology deals has plunged since late last year as investors grow cautious about software valuations in the age of artificial intelligence. In the first quarter, global buyout deal value fell by 70% to $20 billion, with software company valuations dropping around 8% compared to a minor 0.3% decline in other sectors. This downturn is intensified by the potential of AI to disrupt traditional software business models, exacerbating the industry's ongoing challenges in exiting investments and returning capital to limited partners.
Rebecca Burack, head of Bain’s global private equity practice, noted that the market suffers from a confidence problem rather than a lack of capital, as firms still hold significant dry powder. Buyout firms must now adapt to AI risks by finding ways to protect existing investments and assess new ones. Currently, the exit backlog remains high, with record-low distributions relative to net-asset value, leaving many companies effectively trapped within private equity portfolios.
Consequently, holding periods for assets have stretched to six to seven years, up from the historical average of three to four years. While the industry previously required approximately 5% annual earnings growth to achieve a 2.5 times return during these holding periods, it now requires about 12% annual growth. Furthermore, even continuation vehicles are facing scrutiny, making older assets with uncertain future performances and high valuations particularly difficult to sell.