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11月核心CPI(剔除食品与能源)同比上升2.6%,为四年低点、也是2021年以来最慢增速,且低于彭博调查所有预估。多位经济学家认为数据「不对劲」,因为史上最长的联邦政府停摆干扰了BLS:10月无法持续采价,11月也比往常更晚才开始抽样。

由于10月缺数,报告出现多页空白;一些预测者指出,这在效果上等同假设10月「零涨价」,对11月通膨读数造成明显下压。BLS在FAQ与技术文件中也预警:以9月至11月的「双月」变动来近似缺失月份,波动更大、可信度较低;缩短的采样期亦可能带来偏误。

住房分项(约占CPI三分之一)是最大异常来源。BLS表示对关键住房指标采用carry-forward imputation:2025年10月租金与业主等价租金(OER)由2025年4月数值沿用,导致10月指数「不变」。分析者因此看到两个月内主租金平均仅+0.06%、OER仅+0.14%,几乎等同9月后未再上升。部分影响可能在12月CPI以较高月增补回,而因租金采6个月滚动抽样,10月的异常值可能要到2026年4月才逐步退出;通膨或仍在降温,但本次读数可能夸大降温幅度。

November core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2021 and below all Bloomberg survey estimates. Economists questioned the print because a record-long federal shutdown disrupted Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection: prices weren’t gathered through October and sampling began later than usual in November. Sticky categories—especially shelter, about one-third of CPI—appeared to cool abruptly, with declines also seen in airfares and apparel.

Forecasters said the missing October observations left blank pages and effectively treated October as if prices did not rise, mechanically pushing November inflation lower. The BLS cautioned in FAQs and technical notes that “bimonthly” (September-to-November) estimates can be volatile and less trustworthy for the missing month, and the shortened field period could further skew measured changes.

BLS said it used carry-forward imputation for key housing metrics: October 2025 rent and owners’ equivalent rent were carried forward from April 2025, producing unchanged October index values. Analysts noted primary rents rose only 0.06% on average over two months and owners’ equivalent rent just 0.14%, implying essentially zero increase from September. Month-to-month housing moves may look high when December CPI arrives, while rolling six‑month sampling means October quirks may linger until April 2026.

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2025-12-19 (Friday) · d39ff48e13e0dbd4fa37b3130fcb317f28d250bb