在过去 10 年，软体收购是私募股权最大单一类别，估计约占以兆美元计的交易活动约 40%，Vista Equity Partners 与 Thoma Bravo 是这波热潮核心：软体交易量从危机前每年数十亿美元，上升到自 2020 年起的数千亿美元，而两者的资产合计也从不足 $3bn 攀升到约 $300bn。文章将 Anthropic 发布新模型 Claude Opus 4.5 描绘为引爆点，再度引发对专业企业软体可能被商品化的恐惧，进而对高杠杆、由 PE 持有的软体带来退出风险，也波及私募信贷，因为软体收购约占放款曝险的近 1/3；Apollo 提到「massive dislocation」风险并下调软体曝险。在公开市场方面，随著 LSEG 股价在 1 year 内下跌约 1/3，Elliott Management 已在 London Stock Exchange Group 建立显著持股；LSEG 以 £22bn 收购 Refinitiv 后转型为资料与指数综合体，并持有约 £10bn 的 Tradeweb 股权，而月末即将公布的年度业绩被视为观察管理层如何回应的早期读数。
英国规模 £77bn 的 Universities Superannuation Scheme（USS）被点名在私募市场表现吃力：其在宽频业者 G.Network（投入约 £300mn）上押注后，该公司申请破产程序；此前 USS 于 2024 年对 Thames Water 认列 £1bn 减记，且更早之前在 Northvolt 上也有失败投资。私募市场约占 USS 投组的 1/3，但因绩效未被一致地拆分揭露而难以评估。尽管管理层将 10-year 滚动的私募市场绩效描述为「high single-to-low double-digit」，报告揭示的年度化报酬却是 5 years 仅 1.7%、10 years 为 3.9%，其中对冲比率大幅提高到约 50% 被指为原因之一；另有报导称一名员工在上一个财政年度收入超过 £2mn，使会员批评升温。其他数字讯号还包括：xAI 自 2023 年推出以来，原本 12 位创办人已流失第 6th 位，呼应 AI 时代的波动正在重塑私募与公募市场的赢家、退出与资本配置。
Private markets largely absorbed recent shocks such as rapid interest-rate rises and US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs without the widely expected reckoning, but the newsletter argues the bigger stress test is now AI-driven disruption in software, alongside dealmaking’s broader logjam. It also notes newly released documents indicating Jes Staley was named a trustee of Jeffrey Epstein’s estate up to at least 2015, a detail presented as undercutting prior court testimony that he declined the role.
Software buyouts were the single biggest private equity category over the past decade, estimated at about 40% of deal activity measured in trillions of dollars, with Vista Equity Partners and Thoma Bravo central to the boom: software deal volume rose from a few billion dollars annually pre-crisis to hundreds of billions beginning in 2020, while the pair’s assets collectively climbed to about $300bn from under $3bn. The piece frames Anthropic’s release of a new model, Claude Opus 4.5, as a catalyst for renewed fear that specialized enterprise software could be commoditized, creating exit risk for highly leveraged PE-owned software and for private credit, where software takeovers represent nearly 1/3 of lending exposure; Apollo cited “massive dislocation” risk and cut software exposure. In public markets, Elliott Management has built a significant stake in London Stock Exchange Group as LSEG shares fell about 1/3 over 1 year; LSEG’s £22bn Refinitiv acquisition reshaped it into a data-and-indices conglomerate that also holds a roughly £10bn stake in Tradeweb, and upcoming annual results at month-end are flagged as an early read on how management responds.
The UK’s £77bn Universities Superannuation Scheme is highlighted as struggling in private markets after backing broadband provider G.Network (around £300mn invested) ahead of its insolvency application, following a £1bn Thames Water writedown in 2024 and an earlier failed bet on Northvolt; private markets are about 1/3 of USS’s portfolio but are hard to evaluate because performance is not consistently broken out. Despite management describing 10-year rolling private-markets performance as “high single-to-low double-digit,” the reported headline annualised returns are 1.7% over 5 years and 3.9% over 10 years, with a sharp increase in the hedge ratio to about 50% cited as a factor and member criticism sharpened by reports of a staff member earning over £2mn in the last financial year. Additional numeric signals include xAI losing a 6th founder out of its original 12 since launching in 2023, reinforcing the broader theme that AI-era volatility is reshaping winners, exits, and capital allocation across both private and public markets.