在科幻中篇小说《Europe 2031》中，研究人员描绘了一种情境，其中人工智慧（AI）和地缘政治的进步导致欧洲陷入经济和政治的边缘化。故事围绕著布鲁塞尔的一名法国政策官员和加州的一名德国企业家展开。当他们观察未来五年内AI的动态时，欧洲面临著失去获取领先AI模型管道、遭受网络攻击和面临巨额债务的困境。这一叙事凸显了对欧洲竞争力的担忧，例如AI初创公司 Anthropic 在单轮融资中筹集了650亿美元（$65 billion），这大约相当于2025年所有欧洲初创公司融资总额的总和。
为避免这种命运，作者们认为欧洲必须启动80年来最具雄心的政治议程，对数据中心、晶片和机器人技术进行大规模投资。Google DeepMind 的荷兰研究员 Michiel Bakker 提出了一条介于完全依赖矽谷与完全孤立之间的折中道路。建议的政策包括改革劳动法，以及与加拿大、日本和韩国等中等强国结盟。此外，欧洲应利用其关键资产，如制造世界上最先进晶片制造设备的荷兰厂商 ASML，以及其企业产生的工业数据，以保持与美国公司或政府的谈判筹码。
然而，这种对未来的预测建立在尚未被证实的预测之上，例如预计一家美国AI巨头在2030年的估值将达到13兆美元（$13 trillion）。尽管如此，许多设想的情景与当前的地缘政治局势高度相似，例如美国施压 ASML 停止向中国销售设备，以及分级授权AI模型，这与白宫限制 Nvidia 晶片出口的做法如出一辙。Michiel Bakker 指出，延迟获取技术的情况已经发生，例如 Anthropic 在美国发布 Mythos 模型数周后才将其引进欧洲。最终，欧洲面临著是否能在未来三四年内获得尖端模型并在谈判桌上占有一席之地的关键问题。
In the science fiction novella "Europe 2031," researchers depict a scenario where advances in AI and geopolitics cause Europe to slide into economic and political irrelevance. The narrative follows a French policymaker in Brussels and a German entrepreneur in California. As they observe the dynamics of AI over the next five years, Europe suffers from lost access to leading AI models, cyberattacks, and massive debts. This narrative highlights concerns regarding European competitiveness, illustrated by the startup Anthropic raising $65 billion in a single round, matching the total funds raised by all European startups in 2025 combined.
To avert this outcome, the authors argue Europe must launch its most ambitious political agenda in 80 years, requiring massive investments in data centers, chips, and robotics. Co-author Michiel Bakker of Google DeepMind suggests a middle path between total reliance on Silicon Valley and complete isolation. Recommended policies include labor law reforms and aligning with middle powers like Canada, Japan, and South Korea. Furthermore, Europe should leverage its key assets, such as ASML, the Dutch manufacturer of advanced chipmaking machinery, and industrial data from its companies, to maintain bargaining power with American companies or administrations.
However, this speculative future relies on unproven forecasts, such as an American AI giant achieving a $13 trillion valuation by 2030. Nonetheless, many projected scenarios mirror current geopolitical tensions, such as US pressure on ASML regarding sales to China and tiered model licensing resembling current Nvidia chip export restrictions. Michiel Bakker notes that delayed access to technology is already happening, pointing out that Anthropic released its Mythos model in Europe weeks after its US launch. Ultimately, Europe faces the critical question of whether it can secure a seat at the table and access frontier models in the near future.