中国旅客下滑幅度明显，12月中国赴日旅客年减50%至约330,000人；忍野八海周边调查显示，45%店家回报中国观光客大幅减少，另有50%回报小幅减少，意味超过90%都出现下滑。当地销售受影响小于来客数，但仍具实质性：40%回报销售受重大冲击、30%回报有些影响、25%回报影响不大；有餐厅称营收约下滑60%，一名计程车司机则称月收入约减少200,000日圆。其他地区替代效应较强：福冈川端商店街有42%回报中国客流无变化、58%回报销售影响不大；浅草则有45%回报中国顾客无变化、70%表示销售大致未受影响。
核心趋势是中国消费行为的结构性转变：人流可大幅下滑，但伴手礼销售降幅较小，因为「爆买」在外交冲击前就已转弱。一家曾每月接待约1,000名中国顾客的店家表示，11月后来客数明显下坠，但销售降幅远不成比例，这与团体旅游人均购买力下降一致。高端市场受击更清楚：在2025年12月，百货免税购买人数年减16.7%，免税销售额年减17.1%，显示奢侈导向需求几乎一比一收缩。企业正以市场与产品多元化因应，包括聚焦台湾的品牌策略；有零售商称台湾目前约贡献其外国旅客销售的50%，同时业界将2月中旬农历新年视为下行风险与回流客机会并存的时点。
Japan’s inbound tourism remained strong overall even as Chinese group travel contracted: total visitors to Japan exceeded 40 million in 2025, and spending in October-December rose 10% year on year. At Oshino Hakkai, however, on-site signs of the shock were clear, with only 2 tour buses visible at noon versus previously crowded lots, and local operators estimating large-bus volume at less than 50% of peak levels. The disruption followed a November political dispute, after which China urged citizens to avoid travel to Japan, setting up a sudden test of how dependent destinations still are on Chinese package tours.
The measurable decline in Chinese arrivals was steep, with December Chinese visitors down 50% year on year to about 330,000, and local surveys near Oshino Hakkai showing 45% of businesses reporting a major drop in Chinese tourists plus 50% reporting a slight drop, meaning more than 90% saw declines. Sales effects were weaker than traffic effects but still material there: 40% reported major sales impact, 30% some impact, and 25% little impact; one restaurant cited a roughly 60% sales fall, while a taxi driver reported monthly income down about 200,000 yen. Elsewhere, substitution was stronger: in Fukuoka’s Kawabata arcade, 42% saw no change in Chinese traffic and 58% saw little sales impact, while in Asakusa 45% reported no change in Chinese customers and 70% said sales were largely unaffected.
The core trend is a structural shift in Chinese spending behavior: footfall can fall sharply while souvenir sales fall less, because “explosive buying” had already weakened before the diplomatic shock. A shop that once saw around 1,000 Chinese customers per month said customer counts collapsed after November but sales dropped far less proportionally, consistent with lower per-capita purchasing on group tours. At the high end, the hit is clearer: in December 2025, department-store duty-free buyers fell 16.7% year on year and duty-free sales value fell 17.1%, showing near one-to-one contraction in luxury-oriented demand. Businesses are responding by diversifying markets and products, including Taiwan-focused branding where one retailer says Taiwan now contributes about 50% of its foreign-visitor sales, while the sector watches mid-February Lunar New Year as both downside risk and repeat-visitor opportunity.