许多产品以「半流动」结构设计,通常每季将赎回上限设为净值5%或7%,并保留进一步上调或下修的弹性。过去市场见到部分机构先大幅满足全部赎回需求,但近周多数经理人改为设限。超限部分常改采比例发放(pro-rata),有些投资人仅拿到不足半数,剩余得下季再申报,且后续是否全额兑付无保证。Jim Zelter指出,某些地区发行渠道未能提前充分揭露流动性风险,形成短期赎回与资讯认知错位。
John Cocke警告高赎回环境可能形成负回授:流动性不足时,新进资金放缓,提领需求上升;同时越是限制提领,越难吸引新资金,亦加大既有组合管理压力。Citigroup Inc. 的Michael Anderson补充,若过度满足大规模赎回,存续组合结构会改变。即便如此,基金端仍有新增募资:约50亿美元(US$5B),但明显低于前季;若多季维持双位数申请,观察焦点将放在Blue Owl Capital Inc.、Oaktree Capital Management与Antares Capital的窗口公告。Blue Owl的两档基金出现5.2%与15%以上提领,且Blackstone Private Credit Fund达7.9%、Ares Strategic Income Fund达11.6%,Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund达14%(但其限额为7%)。
A wave of redemption requests in private credit has left more than US$4.6 billion unwithdrawn this quarter, even though investors sought roughly US$13 billion across more than a dozen funds. With most funds capped at 5% of net assets per quarter, about two-thirds of requests could be paid out. Firms including Apollo Global Management Inc. and Ares Management Corp. this week added redemption caps alongside earlier actions by BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley. Bloomberg-tracked funds reporting tenders hold about US$133 billion in net assets, and their current redemption requests are near 10%, almost double those from three months earlier.
Many products are structured as semi-liquid vehicles with quarterly caps of 5% or 7%, with discretion to expand or tighten limits. Many managers initially met requests above limits, but increasingly they are now rationing. In pro-rata cases, investors often receive only part of requested amounts, sometimes less than half, and must reapply in later quarters with no certainty of full repayment. Jim Zelter said some distribution channels globally had not clearly communicated the embedded liquidity risk to investors. This tension has moved from isolated stress to a broader issue: if outflows rise, it directly tests the credibility and predictability of private-credit liquidity.
The industry faces a potential feedback loop. John Cocke said that in stressed periods, inflows slow while more investors seek liquidity than provide it, so stricter gates can make it harder to attract replacements and worsen outflow pressure. Michael Anderson noted that if too much of a portfolio is redeemed at once, the remaining portfolio’s quality profile changes. Some inflows persist—managers report over US$5 billion raised this year—but this is below prior quarters. If double-digit redemption levels persist, key gatewatch names such as Blue Owl, Oaktree, and Antares, plus stress-sensitive products like Ares Strategic Income (11.6%), Blackstone Private Credit (7.9%), Cliffwater (14%), and Blue Owl funds (5.2% and over 15%) will determine whether redemptions become structural rather than episodic.