政策重点转向「用得准、用得好」而非单纯加码。官方提到将加快化解地方「隐性债务」风险、提高政府投资回报，把资源投向「新质生产力」（先进制造与科技创新），同时精简税收优惠与财政补贴，以抑制省际无效竞争、推进更统一的国内市场。
在债务上升与执行偏慢的背景下，数据显示：2025年计划口径的广义财政赤字提高到接近GDP的10%，但实际支出长期低于目标；2025年前11个月政府支出约34万亿元人民币（约4.8万亿美元），不足全年预算的81%。展望2026年，市场预期即使正式预算仅小幅上调，实际支出仍可能扩张，并把增长支撑更多转向居民消费：提高家庭收入、延续面向节能家电与电动车的全国以旧换新补贴，以对冲房价走弱与就业市场降温。
On Dec. 29, 2025, China’s Ministry of Finance said it will expand government spending in 2026 while improving how capital is deployed. The plan stresses a “more proactive” fiscal stance through higher efficiency and stronger local spending power via more effective transfer payments, coordinated with financial tools to support growth while containing debt risks.
The policy message shifts from bigger stimulus to better targeting. Officials highlighted faster resolution of local “hidden debt” risks and higher returns on government investment, with more funding for “new productive forces” (advanced manufacturing and technology innovation). Tax breaks and fiscal subsidies will also be streamlined to curb wasteful inter-provincial competition and promote a more unified domestic market, with economists emphasizing effectiveness over sheer scale.
The emphasis comes amid rising debt and weak execution: in 2025 the planned broad fiscal deficit was lifted to nearly 10% of GDP, yet actual spending lagged—about 34 trillion yuan ($4.8 trillion) was spent in the first 11 months, under 81% of the annual budget. For 2026, analysts expect higher realized outlays even if the formal budget rises only slightly, alongside a stronger pivot toward consumption by boosting household incomes and extending a national trade-in subsidy program for energy-efficient appliances and EVs as property values and the labor market cool.
