美国围绕预测市场的政治斗争已升级，跨党派结盟也在出现，双方都在争论这些平台究竟是合法金融市场还是非法赌博。Kalshi 目前在 all 50 states 营运，而 Polymarket 因作为未注册衍生品市场运作，于 2022 被美国禁止，并在去年以有限形式回归。体育被描述为最受欢迎的类别；Kalshi 称，仅 Super Bowl Sunday 当天该场比赛的交易就创下单日逾 $800 million 纪录，与该事件相关合约的总交易额则超过 $1.3 billion。
预测市场由联邦层级的 Commodity Futures Trading Commission（CFTC）监管；自 1980s 末期 University of Iowa 推出 Iowa Electronic Market 以来，该机构一直在处理此领域。Kalshi 在全国面临 19 起独立诉讼，且近期在 Massachusetts 几乎遭到临时停业；本月稍早，23 位 Democratic senators 支持要求预测市场遵守州级赌博法的努力。过去几天内，CFTC 主张对该产业拥有唯一控制权，包括在 Crypto.com 与 Nevada 的争议中提交支持其立场的 amicus brief，并于同日由主席 Michael Selig 发布影片声明，承诺将就对 CFTC 权限的挑战进行法院攻防。
对较宽松联邦处理方式的支持，包含与 Trump 相关的参与及 Democratic 游说：President Trump 与家族计划推出 Truth Predict，Donald Trump Jr. 同时担任 Kalshi 与 Polymarket 顾问，且其公司 1789 Capital 投资 Polymarket；Sean Patrick Maloney 援引可追溯至 1930s 的联邦立法，主张 CFTC 具有排他管辖权。市场扩张仍在持续并出现新合作，包括本周宣布的 Polymarket 与 Substack 整合、Federal Reserve 对 Kalshi 的正面分析、与 CNN、CBS、CNBC、Dow Jones 的资料共享协议，以及 Jump Trading 持有两家公司股权。文章将此比作 hemp-derived THC 的监管：Illinois、New York、California 等州每年征收数亿美元，并指出美国人已花近 10 年辩论致醉性 hemp 政策，仍无明确结论。
The US political fight over prediction markets has escalated, with alliances crossing party lines and both sides disputing whether platforms are legal financial markets or illegal gambling. Kalshi currently operates in all 50 states, while Polymarket was banned from the US in 2022 for operating as an unregistered derivatives market and returned in a limited capacity last year. Sports is described as the most popular category, and Kalshi reported a daily record of over $800 million in trades on Super Bowl Sunday for the game alone, plus over $1.3 billion traded on contracts related to the event altogether.
Prediction markets are federally overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has dealt with the sector since the late 1980s, when the University of Iowa launched the Iowa Electronic Market. Kalshi is facing 19 separate lawsuits across the country and narrowly avoided a recent temporary shutdown in Massachusetts; earlier this month, 23 Democratic senators supported efforts to require prediction markets to follow state gambling laws. Over the past few days, the CFTC asserted sole control of the industry, including filing an amicus brief supporting Crypto.com in its Nevada dispute and a same-day video statement from chairman Michael Selig promising court fights over challenges to CFTC authority.
Support for lighter-touch federal treatment includes Trump-linked participation and Democratic lobbying: President Trump and family plan to launch Truth Predict, Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, and his firm 1789 Capital invests in Polymarket; Sean Patrick Maloney cited federal legislation dating to the 1930s for exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. Market expansion continues with new partnerships, including Polymarket’s Substack integration announced this week, Federal Reserve positive analysis of Kalshi, data-sharing deals across CNN, CBS, CNBC, and Dow Jones, and Jump Trading taking stakes in both firms. The article compares this to hemp-derived THC regulation, where states including Illinois, New York, and California collect hundreds of millions of dollars annually, and notes Americans have spent close to a decade debating intoxicating hemp policy without a clear resolution.