双方都在行动上表现出「我方占优」的预期。Donald Trump 方面以每日短片宣传为辅，声称已摧毁伊朗常规海军、削弱导弹制造能力并打击高层领导，同时又向波斯湾再部署约 7,000 名 Marines 与 82nd Airborne 的部队，补足地面维度。伊朗则依 former nuclear negotiator Seyed Hossein Mousavian 的观点，认为这是先以谈判诈术掩饰即将在波斯湾展开的两栖主力打击，并把战争视为其生存战，认为在空战条件下只要撑过去即可形成战略上的胜算。
谈判是否转向的关键在经济与海上控制。霍尔木兹目前承载世界海运石油 25% 与液化天然气 20%，2024 年经由该海峡的其他主要产品贸易总值约 773 亿美元，且每一类商品平均占全球该类出口 14.9%。伊朗议会急于以立法确立对霍尔木兹的单方面主权，意味可藉通过放行、加费或以安全名义扣押等方式将其转为持续收费机制；这将重塑长期由美国海军支持的航行自由秩序，也让海合会国难以接受一个可能仍具威慑性的伊朗控制航道。若不接受任何对 Donald Trump 来说近似失败的政治让步，冲突升级的趋势仍在。
At the opening of the week, Donald Trump's announced Iran talks looked less like a path to peace than an exchange of hardline demands. The U.S. 15-point plan reportedly tied ending strikes and sanctions relief to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending all uranium enrichment, accepting full inspections, limiting ballistic missiles to defensive use, and stopping support for overseas proxy groups. Iran answered with five preconditions: end U.S.-Israeli hostilities and assassinations, halt attacks on its regional proxies, provide concrete guarantees against renewed attacks, pay war reparations, and recognize Iran’s sovereign control over Hormuz.
Both sides now act as if they hold the advantage. Donald Trump's administration has framed recent strikes as strategically decisive—claiming destruction of Iran’s conventional navy, heavy degradation of missile capacity and leadership layers—while adding about 7,000 Marines and elements of the 82nd Airborne to the Gulf for a missing land component. Iran’s leadership, including former nuclear negotiator Seyed Hossein Mousavian’s assessment, portrays the proposal as deception before a large amphibious operation and interprets the war as existential: if Tehran can survive sustained airpower, the balance may already favor Iran strategically despite battlefield damage.
Economics and sea control now drive escalation risk. The Strait already carries 25% of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquid natural gas, and trade of other major goods through Hormuz in 2024 reached about $773 billion, about 14.9% average share of each listed export category worldwide. Tehran’s parliament is moving to legislate unilateral sovereignty claims over the strait, turning transit management, tolling and detentions into long-term leverage. That could undermine the U.S.-anchored doctrine of open navigation and keeps Gulf states from accepting a wounded but emboldened Islamic Republic that can tax or block strategic shipping lanes.