1973年的阿拉伯石油禁运表明资源武器化会冲击全球经济，而如今风险转向关键矿产，因为中国在去年已展示其出口管制能力。它大约开采全球80%的钨并精炼99%的镓，美国因此启动数十年来最大规模的大宗商品干预，试图将60种矿物的供应来源多元化。
趋势数据凸显脆弱性：在中国于4月限制7种稀土、并于10月再针对5种之后，五角大楼近三分之一的采购项目面临短缺风险，汽车与可再生能源等行业也受波及。与此同时，全球商品市场每天处理约4000万份衍生品合约，历史上常能比政府计划更好地吸收冲击，但中国由国家支持的巨头可通过压价和暂时亏损来阻止竞争者进入。
核心政策取舍是“安全保险”与“市场激励”的平衡：将重点从全部60种矿物收窄到更易被卡脖子的关键小众金属，优先保障国防（以及可能的医疗）等关键用途，并把资金集中到接近完工的项目、精炼与冶炼环节及可回收副产品。定向储备可覆盖数月需求、预先定价采购合同可撬动私人投资，但必须保留高价信号以推动节约和创新；与欧洲和日本协作还能放大市场规模并降低单边“锁资源”竞赛的代价。
The 1973 Arab oil embargo showed how resource weaponization can shock the world economy, and today the risk has shifted to critical minerals because China already demonstrated export-control leverage last year. It mines about 80% of global tungsten and refines 99% of gallium, so America has launched its biggest commodity-market intervention in decades to diversify sourcing across 60 minerals.
The trend data show acute exposure: after China restricted seven rare earths in April and then targeted five more in October, nearly one-third of Pentagon procurement programs faced shortage risk, with spillovers to carmaking and renewable energy. At the same time, global commodity markets process about 40 million derivatives contracts per day and have often absorbed shocks better than planners, yet China’s state-backed giants can deter entrants by flooding supply and taking temporary losses.
The central policy trade-off is balancing security insurance with market incentives: narrow focus from all 60 minerals to niche metals where chokepoints are real, prioritize defence (and possibly health care), and concentrate funding on near-completion projects, refining/smelting bottlenecks, and recoverable by-products. Targeted stockpiles can cover months of demand and pre-agreed purchase contracts can crowd in private capital, but high price signals must remain to drive conservation and innovation; cooperation with Europe and Japan can further scale supply resilience and reduce the costs of unilateral resource lockups.
Source: America’s dangerous pursuit of critical-mineral dominance
Subtitle: With a more focused approach, it could break China’s chokehold
Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 08:17 上午