两岸争端在1949年定型：国民政府撤退来台，中共从未统治台湾但主张其主权。美国在1970年代与北京建交后形成「一中政策」与战略模糊，维持非正式对台关系并在条件下售武，同时中国保留以武力阻止法理独立的立场。民意趋势上，2025年6月民调显示约四分之一支持立即或最终独立，支持与中国统一者低于7%，独立倾向呈上升走势。
近年军事压力明显升高：赖清德于2024年5月上任后的第一年，中国对台进行3次大规模军演（创历任总统任内首年纪录），且跨越台海中线的日均军机／舰活动「较前一年翻倍以上」；台湾在2024年10月中旬通报单日111架次军机越界创纪录。美国政策讯号也更不确定：特朗普在2月27日拒答是否会阻止武力夺台，但其政府12月中旬仍核准最高约110亿美元军售；他首任期对台军售约186.5亿美元，并对台湾货品宣布20%关税，11月2日又称习近平「明白若入侵将发生什么」。
Taiwan—wealthy, democratic, and about 23.5 million people—sits just off China’s coast and anchors key trade and security routes for the US and Japan. It is also pivotal to global high‑tech and semiconductor supply chains. Historical contests for the island, including the Qing dynasty’s 1895 defeat and cession to Japan, helped turn “reunification” into a durable political rallying cry for later Chinese leaders.
The modern dispute crystallized in 1949 when Chiang Kai‑shek’s Nationalists retreated to Taiwan after losing China’s civil war; the Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan but claims it as territory. US policy shifted in the 1970s toward a “One China” framework and strategic ambiguity: recognizing Beijing while keeping informal ties and conditional arms sales to Taipei. Public opinion has moved the other way: a June 2025 survey shows about one‑quarter backing immediate or eventual independence, with under 7% favoring unification.
Tensions have surged under Lai Ching‑te, who took office in May 2024: China held three large‑scale drills around Taiwan in his first year (a record) and the average daily median‑line incursions more than doubled versus the prior year; Taiwan reported a record 111 warplanes crossing a US‑drawn boundary in mid‑October 2024. US signals are mixed under Trump’s second term: on Feb. 27 he declined to say he would stop a forcible takeover, yet his administration approved up to $11 billion in arms sales in mid‑December after roughly $18.65 billion in first‑term weapons deals, while also announcing a 20% tariff and warning on Nov. 2 that Xi “understands” the consequences of an invasion.
