一场原本计划为期三天的战争已持续了一千三百七十二天，几乎四年，仍看不到真正的停火，而零星的美俄“业余外交”既未达成休战，只是激怒被排除在谈判之外的欧洲人。战争却前所未有地凝聚了欧洲：27个成员国共同接纳了数以百万计的乌克兰难民，提供武器和资金，并一同对俄罗斯实施了20轮制裁。

一旦达成和平，这种团结很可能瓦解，尤其在对俄罗斯的态度上，欧洲东翼与西翼势必分裂。波罗的海国家、芬兰和波兰担心停火会让俄军抽身准备新一轮进攻，主张进一步孤立俄罗斯，而西欧国家则会质疑是否有必要继续高额国防开支，并可能推动恢复部分俄气进口。

围绕俄罗斯重返国际体系及战后经济利益的博弈，将把争端从地图延伸到各国议会内部：俄美构想的28点计划设想俄罗斯重返G8并逐步解除制裁，而德国等国商界或会推动借恢复能源贸易提升竞争力。与此同时，如何运用冻结在欧盟金融机构、总额逾一千亿欧元（约一千一百一十六亿美元）的俄方资产重建乌克兰，以及是否继续推动一个腐败丑闻缠身的乌克兰入盟，也将撕裂欧洲与美国之间的关系。

What was supposed to be a three-day war has lasted 1,372 days—nearly four years—while recent, improvised diplomacy between the United States and Russia has produced noise but no truce and sidelined Europeans. Yet the war has unexpectedly forged rare unity: the 27 EU member states have taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees, financed and armed Kyiv, offered an accession path, and jointly imposed 20 rounds of sanctions on Russia.

Peace would likely fracture this unity, especially between eastern and western Europe over how hard to contain Russia. States on the eastern flank, such as the Baltics, Finland and Poland, fear that a ceasefire would free Russian forces for future offensives and thus want tighter isolation, while many in the west would question sustained high defence spending and argue for gradually resuming some Russian gas imports.

A proposed 28-point plan that would readmit Russia to the G8 and roll back EU sanctions, while competing claims over more than €100bn ($116bn) in frozen Russian assets and reconstruction contracts in Ukraine, would sharpen intra-European and transatlantic rifts. At the same time, doubts about American reliability under Donald Trump, disputes over NATO and “strategic autonomy”, and looming arguments about whether millions of Ukrainians should return home and whether Ukraine should still move toward EU membership, all threaten deep political division once the fighting stops.