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Bloomberg 对中国导弹生态的首次财务映射研究,回顾了2013年至2025年间与中国航天科工集团(CASIC)或中国航天科技集团(CASC)相关的400家上市公司;其中2025年有81家公司被识别为导弹生产或关键供应链企业,为习近平上任第一年企业数量的两倍以上,且在2025年有80家披露了营收(另有1家于2023年被摘牌)。近四成公司报告其在习近平任期内创下最佳年销售,总销售额达1890亿元人民币(280亿美元),同比增长20%,成为该供应链在其任期内最强增长周期;这与中国前300大上市公司同期总收入下滑形成对比。

研究显示,22家企业同时服务巡航导弹与弹道导弹,另有15家只服务巡航导弹。多数公司提供3D列印金属、红外传感、隐身涂层、光纤线圈与测试软件,用于导弹体系;武汉光路、长江光电、成都嘉晟等公司上涨明显:光路在2020年前后防务营收已超过70%,2025年同比增长73%;长江光电2025年相关业务约占70%,同比增长20%;嘉晟科技同比增长16%。美国国防部估计中国到2024年至少有3150枚弹道导弹与300枚地地导弹,较2015年分别增加147%与50%;另有Xi指出北京展示了包括DF-21D、DF-26(又称Guam Express)与DF-61等可覆盖台湾与关岛(约3000英里,约4830公里)等威慑范围的武器。

美国与中国都在扩充库存,导致台海及印度洋—太平洋防卫平衡风险升高。与2025年第一波壮大相比,分析指出中国2026年国防支出或将增长7%,这是2022年以来最慢一档;同时反腐与高层军改带来不确定性,可能收紧采购流程并扰动研发。尽管如此,导弹供应链企业第一季度营收同比仍上升约20%,而同期中国前300大企业仅上升2.4%,显示在高层权力清洗背景下,导弹产能与财务优先顺序仍保持高位。

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Bloomberg’s first mapped-financial study of China’s missile ecosystem reviewed filings from 400 listed firms linked to China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) or China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) between 2013 and 2025; in 2025, 81 firms were identified as missile producers or key suppliers, more than double the 2013 level, and 80 disclosed revenue after one firm was delisted in 2023. Nearly 40% reported their best annual sales in Xi Jinping’s tenure, with total sales reaching RMB 189 billion (US$28 billion), up 20%, the strongest growth in that supply chain period and the opposite of China’s top-300 listed firms, whose aggregate revenue fell over the same period.

The mapping found 22 firms serving both cruise and ballistic missiles and 15 focused on cruise missiles only. Providers ranged from 3D-printed metals and infrared sensors to stealth coatings, fiber-optic coils, and software. Notable gainers included Wuhan Guide Infrared, Yangtze Optical Electronic, and Chengdu Jiachi Electronic: Guide Infrared’s defense share had exceeded 70% by 2020 and rose 73% in 2025; YOEC’s related businesses made up about 70% of 2025 sales, up 20%; JC Technology rose 16%. The US Department of Defense estimates China had at least 3,150 ballistic missiles and 300 ground-launched cruise missiles by 2024, up 147% and 50% from 2015, while systems like DF-21D, DF-26 (“Guam Express”), and DF-61 reinforce strike coverage to Taiwan and Guam, about 3,000 miles (4,830 km) away.

The strategic trend is toward deeper stockpile competition: Becca Wasser noted both sides aim for quantities large enough to outlast conflict. Despite sanctions pressure, China’s 2026 defense budget is expected to rise only 7%—the slowest pace since 2022—while anti-corruption and military purges may tighten procurement and disrupt R&D. Even so, first-quarter data from missile suppliers show revenue up about 20% year-on-year versus 2.4% for China’s top-300 firms, indicating missile production remains a top national priority for Beijing’s deterrence and Taiwan-related coercive capability.
2026-05-13 (Wednesday) · 439654db0ae621b9d7a625646bb783028eb49932