全球各国政府在2020年疫情期间大举借债以防止经济崩溃，导致先进经济体的总债务从2007年约占国内生产毛额（GDP）的70%飙升至2025年的110%。美国的情况尤为严重，其债务占GDP的比率甚至超过了二战时期的水平，纳税人每年需支付约一兆美元的利息。然而，这些巨额借贷并未带来基础设施的改善、健康与教育成果的提升，也未能大幅增加军事储备或促进住房建设。
金融市场的脆弱性正在加剧这一危机。随著伊朗战争冲击全球能源市场，长期债券殖利率大幅上升，反映出市场对财政挥霍、通膨及地缘政治不确定性的担忧。与此同时，退休基金和对冲基金大量使用杠杆衍生工具交易政府债券，使市场在价格剧烈波动时极易出现抛售潮，正如2020年的「现金抢购潮」和2022年英国国债危机所示。对冲基金目前在美国国债上的风险敞口远超2020年动荡前的水平。
作者呼吁各国政府尽快采取行动，包括限制退休基金和对冲基金的杠杆比率、实施全系统压力测试，以及在必要时由央行介入稳定市场。然而，真正的解决之道在于整顿公共财政——削减支出与增加税收需要两党合作与政治勇气。若债务负担持续膨胀，市场崩溃的临界点将越来越近，届时将无人能够出手救援。（关键数字：2008）
Governments worldwide took on massive debt during the 2020 pandemic to avert economic catastrophe, pushing total debt in advanced economies from roughly 70% of GDP in 2007 to 110% in 2025. The United States faces the most acute problem, with debt-to-GDP ratios now exceeding World War II levels and taxpayers spending approximately one trillion dollars annually on interest payments alone. Despite this enormous borrowing, the country has seen no transformative gains in infrastructure, health, education, military readiness, or housing construction.
Financial market fragility is compounding the crisis. Long-term bond yields have surged following the war in Iran's disruption of global energy markets, reflecting concerns over fiscal irresponsibility, inflation, and geopolitical instability. Pension funds and hedge funds are increasingly using highly leveraged derivatives to trade government debt, creating systemic risks of forced mass sell-offs during sharp price movements—as witnessed in the 2020 dash for cash and the 2022 UK gilt crisis. Hedge fund exposure to US Treasuries and total borrowing now far exceed pre-2020 levels.
The author urges governments to act swiftly by limiting leverage for pension and hedge funds, conducting systemwide stress tests, and ensuring central banks stand ready to stabilize markets. However, the fundamental solution lies in restoring fiscal discipline through difficult decisions on spending cuts and revenue increases—requiring bipartisan cooperation and political courage that has been conspicuously lacking. As debt burdens continue to mount, the breaking point draws ever closer, and unlike the 2008 financial crisis, there may be no one left to step in as the rescuer of last resort.