中国企业近年在非洲大举布局：依据 Project Blue，自 2020 年以来，Sinomine Resource Group Co. 与 Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. 等已宣布在 Zimbabwe 锂项目投资约 28 亿美元；CMOC Group Ltd. 自 2016 年以来已向刚果两座铜钴矿投入约 90 亿美元，且近期再公布 11 亿美元扩建案。这些投资帮助刚果在仅 3 年内将钴产量提高至超过 2 倍，并使 Zimbabwe 成为全球第 4 大锂生产国。
但政策转向使这些资产短期内难以完全变现。BloombergNEF 指出，中国自刚果进口的钴在去年减少逾一半，而 CMOC 依配额仅能出口其 2024 年产量的大约四分之一。CRU 的 Martin Jackson 表示，Zimbabwe 规划中的硫酸锂设施只能处理预期锂精矿产量的约三分之一，显示加工能力与供给存在明显错配。文章指出，非洲的资源主权趋势正在增强，但若缺乏税务优惠、基础设施与可预测政策，突然而严格的禁令也可能抑制后续投资。
African export curbs on critical battery metals are hitting Chinese miners that have invested heavily in the continent. The Democratic Republic of Congo began restricting cobalt exports in February 2025, and Zimbabwe banned lithium concentrate shipments in February 2026 to push local processing and capture more value. The measures quickly lifted prices: benchmark cobalt rose more than 160%, Congo’s cobalt hydroxide climbed to more than four times prior levels, and lithium moved toward its highest level since 2023.
Chinese firms have spent aggressively in Africa. According to Project Blue, companies led by Sinomine Resource Group Co. and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. have announced about $2.8 billion of lithium investment in Zimbabwe since 2020. CMOC Group Ltd. alone has put about $9 billion into two Congolese copper-cobalt mines since 2016 and recently added a $1.1 billion expansion. Those investments helped Congo more than double cobalt output in just three years and turned Zimbabwe into the world’s fourth-largest lithium producer.
The policy shift now limits how much value miners can realize from those assets. BloombergNEF said China’s cobalt imports from Congo fell by more than half last year, while CMOC can export only about one quarter of what it produced in 2024 under current quotas. In Zimbabwe, CRU’s Martin Jackson said planned sulfate plants can process only about one third of expected concentrate output, showing a major capacity mismatch. The article argues that African resource nationalism is strengthening, but abrupt restrictions without tax incentives, infrastructure, and predictable rules could also deter future investment.