在「照目前排放速度」的情境下，研究估计到 2071–2100 年将有 13% 的全球滑雪区完全失去天然积雪覆盖；低海拔度假区（约 1,000–1,300 公尺）因此关闭或转向三季活动的压力上升。对于具备冬奥承办基础设施的 93 个地点，研究估计到约 2050 年至少 44% 将出现不可靠的积雪条件（以 1981–2010 为基准、在 RCP 2.6 低排放情境下比较 2 月「不良雪况日」）。主办方以多百万美元等级投资造雪系统以降低取消或改址风险；2026 Milano Cortina 以较低水耗与能耗的升级、在高海拔建蓄水池以重力供水、以自动化与气象站挑选最有效率的造雪时段；TechnoAlpin SpA 获得 €30 million（$36 million）专案。但当气温过高时，再先进的技术也无法造雪，赛事取消与改期因而更常见，特别在赛季初末，并扰动选手积分与资格规划。
冬奥规模与成本同时扩张：首届仅 16 场比赛、17 国参赛；到 2026 年为 116 个竞赛项目、分散于北义多地、参赛国超过 90，并新增 ski mountaineering。暖化也推动「不需雪与冰」的冬奥项目讨论；David Lappartient 曾表示将与 Sebastian Coe 推动 cyclocross 与 cross-country running 共用场地纳入未来冬奥。对风险与财务面，2018 平昌约 80% 用雪为人工雪，2022 北京则史上首次全部为制造雪；同时保险对「反复取消」的定义与费率可能转向把它视为常态风险。Milan Cortina 预估总支出约 $3 billion，高于最初 $1.6 billion；2014 索契因亚热带气候与缺乏既有设施而需大规模制雪、储存与运输并成为成本最高。IOC 在北京之后决定自 2030 起以契约要求降低直接与间接温室气体排放、保护生物多样性与永续资源管理，并研究将主办地轮替于仅约 7–8 个在冬奥期间具 10 年平均最低气温低于 0°C 的「气候可靠」国家；约 450 名奥运选手曾连署促请加速行动，Kirsty Coventry 当选后亦将此列为优先。
The 2026 Milan–Cortina Winter Olympics face the prospect that the Games can no longer “rely on winter”: heavy January snow in the Italian Alps eased immediate pressure, but unusually warm holiday weather raised doubts that slopes would be ready. Alpine regions are warming faster than the global average, bringing shorter winters with less snowfall, more rain, and bouts of extreme cold and poor visibility, expanding the range of conditions and increasing unpredictability. When Cortina hosted in 1956, February’s average temperature was -14.1°C; in the decade that followed it averaged about -7°C; over roughly 70 years since the first Games there, February temperatures have warmed 3.6°C. Across all Winter Olympic host cities since 1950, average warming is 2.7°C (4.9°F), well above the planet’s 1.4°C average.
Under a “current emissions pace” trajectory, research estimates 13% of global ski areas will lose natural snow cover entirely by 2071–2100, accelerating closures or pivots at lower-altitude resorts typically around 1,000–1,300 meters. Of 93 locations with infrastructure capable of hosting the Winter Olympics, research estimates at least 44% will have unreliable snow conditions by around 2050, based on February “poor snow condition” days compared between a 1981–2010 baseline and an RCP 2.6 low-emissions scenario. Organizers are making multimillion-dollar investments in snowmaking to avoid even costlier cancellations or relocations; for 2026, Milano Cortina upgraded systems to use less water and energy, added high-altitude reservoirs to use gravity instead of pumps, and deployed automation and weather-station timing; TechnoAlpin SpA received €30 million ($36 million). Technology still fails when temperatures are too warm, making cancellations and rescheduling more common, especially at season edges, and disrupting athlete qualification plans.
Scale and costs have risen in parallel: the first Winter Olympics staged 16 races with 17 countries, while 2026 plans 116 contests across multiple Northern Italian venues with athletes from more than 90 countries and the debut of ski mountaineering. Warming also drives proposals for sports less dependent on snow and ice; David Lappartient said he would work with Sebastian Coe to propose adding cyclocross and cross-country running in a shared venue. Risk and finance pressures intensify: about 80% of snow was artificial in Pyeongchang 2018, and Beijing 2022 used manufactured snow for all events for the first time; insurers may reprice repeated cancellations as routine rather than force majeure. Milan Cortina spending is projected around $3 billion versus an initial $1.6 billion, while Sochi 2014 became the costliest, in part because a subtropical host required massive snow production, storage, and transport plus heavy engineering. After Beijing, the IOC decided that from 2030 onward hosts will be contractually required to minimize direct and indirect greenhouse-gas emissions, protect biodiversity, and manage resources sustainably, and it is studying rotation among only about 7–8 “climate-reliable” countries that can show average minimum temperatures below 0°C during the Games over a 10-year period; roughly 450 Olympians urged stronger action, and Kirsty Coventry said she would prioritize it after being elected.